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Pipeline Capacity Rationing and Crude Oil Price Differentials: The Case of Western Canada

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  • W.D. Walls and Xiaoli Zheng

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of pipeline capacity constraints on the discount of Canadian oil prices relative to U.S. benchmark oil prices. Using a panel of monthly data for Canadian oil exporting pipelines, we estimate that price differentials between U.S. markets and Western Canada would increase by 3.6% for 1% increase in pipeline capacity constraints. Pipeline capacity constraints in Canada have resulted in an average loss of $5.53 for every barrel of crude oil exported to the U.S. between 2009 and 2017. In 2015 and 2016, the losses due to insufficient pipeline capacity were equivalent to 3%-5% of the Canadian oil and gas industry's sales revenue and 69%-102% of its royalty payments to provincial governments. Western Canadian oil refiners and refined products' consumers benefit from the depressed crude oil prices. However, the total gains captured by local refiners and consumers are much smaller than the losses of the upstream sector.

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  • W.D. Walls and Xiaoli Zheng, 2020. "Pipeline Capacity Rationing and Crude Oil Price Differentials: The Case of Western Canada," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej41-1-zheng
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
    2. Mark Agerton and Gregory B. Upton Jr., 2019. "Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Severin Borenstein & Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Incidence of an Oil Glut: Who Benefits from Cheap Crude Oil in the Midwest?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1), pages 15-34, January.
    4. Karen Clay & Akshaya Jha & Nicholas Muller & Randall Walsh, 2019. "External Costs of Transporting Petroleum Products: Evidence from Shipments of Crude Oil from North Dakota by Pipelines and Rail," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1), pages 55-72, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. G. Kent Fellows, 2022. "Pipes, Trains and Automobiles: Explaining British Columbia’s High Wholesale Gasoline Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(5), pages 139-160, September.
    2. Brandon Schaufele & Jennifer Winter, 2023. "Production Controls in Heavy Oil and Bitumen Markets: Surplus Transfer Due to Alberta’s Curtailment Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Walls, W.D. & Zheng, Xiaoli, 2021. "Environmental regulation and safety outcomes: Evidence from energy pipelines in Canada," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Libo Xu, 2024. "On the WTI-WCS Oil Price Differential," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 67-77, September.

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