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Overconfidence and Diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Yuval Heller

Abstract

Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestimate the accuracy of their private information. In this paper, we show that risk-averse principals might prefer overconfident agents in various strategic interactions because these agents help diversify the aggregate risk. This may help understanding why successful analysts and entrepreneurs tend to be overconfident. In addition, a different interpretation of the model presents a novel evolutionary foundation for overconfidence, and explains various stylized facts about this bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuval Heller, 2014. "Overconfidence and Diversification," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 134-153, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:134-53
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.6.1.134
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
    2. Waldman, Michael, 1994. "Systematic Errors and the Theory of Natural Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 482-497, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Filippo Massari & Jonathan Newton, 2026. "Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Yuval Heller & Ilan Nehama, 2021. "Evolutionary Foundation for Heterogeneity in Risk Aversion," Papers 2110.11245, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    3. Sawa, Ryoji, 2021. "A prospect theory Nash bargaining solution and its stochastic stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 692-711.
    4. Ron Berman & Yuval Heller, 2020. "Naive analytics equilibrium," Papers 2010.15810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    5. Newton, Jonathan & Naono, Miharu, 2025. "Maxmin, coalitions and evolution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 474-498.
    6. Heller, Yuval & Nehama, Ilan, 2023. "Evolutionary foundation for heterogeneity in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Heller, Yuval & Robson, Arthur J., 2021. "Evolution, heritable risk and skewness loving," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    8. Roee Teper, 2014. "The Endowment Effect as a Blessing," Working Paper 5862, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    9. Andres Espitia, 2024. "Confidence and Organizations," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_521, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Yuval Heller & Eyal Winter, 2020. "Biased-Belief Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-40, May.
    11. Heller, Yuval & Robson, Arthur, 2019. "Evolution and Preference for Local Risk," MPRA Paper 95264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lindbeck, Assar & Weibull, Jörgen, 2015. "Pay Schemes, Bargaining, and Competition for Talent," Working Paper Series 1100, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    13. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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