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Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

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  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Zheng Liu

Abstract

We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is also quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2024. "Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 311-349, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:311-49
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2021. "Digital adoption, automation, and labor markets in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Tsasa, Jean-Paul K., 2022. "Labor market volatility in a fully specified RBC search model: An analytical investigation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Zhang, Hongsheng & Chen, Ziyi & Wei, Yueling, 2025. "Robot adoption and export sophistication: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Firooz, Hamid & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Yajie, 2025. "Automation and the rise of superstar firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Zhang, Yun & Samaniego, Roberto & Rodrigo, Rodimiro, 2025. "Robots and Inequality Between and Within Occupations," SocArXiv gtbm4_v1, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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