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Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

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Abstract

We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a quantitative business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions and estimated to fit U.S. time series. In the model, procyclical automation threats create real wage rigidity that amplify labor market fluctuations. We find that this automation mechanism is quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2022. "Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2019-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-17
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2019-17
    Note: The paper was previously circulated under the title “Robots or Workers? A Macro Analysis of Automation and Labor Markets", published July 18, 2019.
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    Cited by:

    1. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2021. "Digital adoption, automation, and labor markets in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Tsasa, Jean-Paul K., 2022. "Labor market volatility in a fully specified RBC search model: An analytical investigation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Zhang, Hongsheng & Chen, Ziyi & Wei, Yueling, 2025. "Robot adoption and export sophistication: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Firooz, Hamid & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Yajie, 2025. "Automation and the rise of superstar firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Zhang, Yun & Samaniego, Roberto & Rodrigo, Rodimiro, 2025. "Robots and Inequality Between and Within Occupations," SocArXiv gtbm4_v1, Center for Open Science.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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