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Combined Forecasts from Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Models

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Cited by:

  1. Loutfi, Ahmad Amine & Sun, Mengtao & Loutfi, Ijlal & Solibakke, Per Bjarte, 2022. "Empirical study of day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: Insights into a novel loss function for training neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
  2. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Maasoumi, Esfandiar & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2019. "Choosing expected shortfall over VaR in Basel III using stochastic dominance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 95-113.
  3. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Shelton Peiris & Abhay K. Singh, 2016. "Nonlinear Time Series and Neural-Network Models of Exchange Rates between the US Dollar and Major Currencies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, March.
  4. Casarin, Roberto & Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-204.
  5. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Has the Basel Accord improved risk management during the global financial crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 250-265.
  6. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  7. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2015. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
  8. Chan Wai-Sum & Hung King-Chi, 2011. "On Robust Testing and Modelling of Threshold-Type Non-Linearity in ASEAN Foreign Exchange Markets," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, July.
  9. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-538, June.
  10. Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Santos, Paulo Araújo, 2013. "GFC-robust risk management under the Basel Accord using extreme value methodologies," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 223-237.
  11. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 592-607.
  12. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  13. Terui, Nobuhiko & van Dijk, Herman K., 2002. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 421-438.
  14. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2015. "A stochastic dominance approach to financial risk management strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 472-485.
  15. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  16. Heni Boubaker & Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2023. "A Hybrid ARFIMA Wavelet Artificial Neural Network Model for DJIA Index Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1801-1843, December.
  17. Fuzuli Aliyev, 2019. "Testing Market Efficiency with Nonlinear Methods: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, June.
  18. Jinhui Luo & Philip Saks & Steve Satchell, 2009. "Implementing risk appetite in the management of currency portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(6), pages 380-397, February.
  19. Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2013. "Evidence On Features Of A Dsge Business Cycle Model From Bayesian Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 385-402, February.
  20. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
  21. Easley, David & de Prado, Marcos Lopez & O'Hara, Maureen, 2016. "Discerning information from trade data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 269-285.
  22. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  23. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
  24. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment: Some New Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Chuanhua Wei & Chenping Du & Nana Zheng, 2020. "A Changing Weights Spatial Forecast Combination Approach with an Application to Housing Price Prediction," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-11, April.
  26. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
  27. Erwin Hansen & Marco Morales, 2021. "When does the Central Bank intervene the foreign exchange market? Estimating a time‐varying threshold intervention function," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 688-698, June.
  28. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
  29. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  30. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
  31. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 0000. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Martin Hoesli & Anjeza Kadilli & Kustrim Reka, 2017. "Commonality in Liquidity and Real Estate Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 65-105, July.
  33. Hibon, Michele & Evgeniou, Theodoros, 2005. "To combine or not to combine: selecting among forecasts and their combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 15-24.
  34. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
  35. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "A dynamic factor approach to nonlinear stability analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2788-2808, September.
  36. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  37. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  38. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
  39. Fabienne Comte, 2004. "Kernel deconvolution of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 563-582, July.
  40. Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
  41. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Iraj Daizadeh, 2009. "An intellectual property-based corporate strategy: An R&D spend, patent, trademark, media communication, and market price innovation agenda," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 80(3), pages 731-746, September.
  43. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, May.
  44. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  45. Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2015. "A Stochastic Dominance Approach to the Basel III Dilemma: Expected Shortfall or VaR?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-16, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  46. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  47. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Paulo Picchetti, 2016. "New Information and Updating of Market Experts’ Inflation Expectations," Working Papers Series 411, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  48. Federico Lampis, 2016. "Forecasting the sectoral GVA of a small Spanish region," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 38-44.
  49. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.
  50. Sylwester Bejger, 2009. "Econometric Tools for Detection of Collusion Equilibrium in the Industry," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 27-38.
  51. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
  52. Kenichiro McAlinn & Kosaku Takanashi, 2019. "Mean-shift least squares model averaging," Papers 1912.01194, arXiv.org.
  53. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  54. William E. Griffiths & Duangkamon Chotikapanich & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "Averaging Income Distributions," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 347-367, October.
  55. Mihály Hajnal & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2015. "Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/121, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  56. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
  57. van Dieijen, M.J. & Borah, A. & Tellis, G.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2016. "Volatility Spillovers Across User-Generated Content and Stock Market Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2016-008-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  58. Bursian, Dirk & Faia, Ester, 2018. "Trust in the monetary authority," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 66-79.
  59. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2019. "Volatility filtering in estimation of kurtosis (and variance)," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, February.
  60. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009. "Nonparametric Retrospection and Monitoring of Predictability of Financial Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 149-160.
  61. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  62. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Ansgar Belke & Joscha Beckmann & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the EMU – New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Techniques for Fully Harmonized Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0350, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  64. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  65. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  66. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  67. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
  68. Aliyev, Fuzuli & Ajayi, Richard & Gasim, Nijat, 2020. "Modelling asymmetric market volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from Nasdaq-100," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  69. Tanujit Chakraborty & Ashis Kumar Chakraborty & Munmun Biswas & Sayak Banerjee & Shramana Bhattacharya, 2021. "Unemployment Rate Forecasting: A Hybrid Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 183-201, January.
  70. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
  71. Zuzanna Karolak, 2021. "Energy prices forecasting using nonlinear univariate models," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 577-598.
  72. Yu Guo, 2009. "Application of system NCF method to ice flood prediction of the Yellow River," Fuzzy Information and Engineering, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 191-204, June.
  73. Hajirahimi, Zahra & Khashei, Mehdi, 2022. "Series Hybridization of Parallel (SHOP) models for time series forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
  74. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  75. Sánchez, Ismael, 2008. "Adaptive combination of forecasts with application to wind energy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 679-693.
  76. Fallahi, Firouz & Montazeri Shoorkchali, Jalal, 2012. "Government size and economic growth in Greece: A smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 74078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Akintunde & M.O & Kgosi & P.M. & Agunloye & O.K. & Olalude G. A., 2019. "Evaluating Forecast Performance of SETAR Model using Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6.
  78. Mehari Mekonnen Akalu & Rodney Turner, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison between the Free Cash Flow and Discounted Cash Flow Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-083/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  79. McAlinn, Kenichiro & West, Mike, 2019. "Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis in time series forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 155-169.
  80. Rodney Strachan & Herman K. van Dijk, "undated". "Bayesian Model Averaging in Vector Autoregressive Processes with an Investigation of Stability of the US Great Ratios and Risk of a Liquidity Trap in the USA, UK and Japan," MRG Discussion Paper Series 1407, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  81. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," IIE, Working Papers 072, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  82. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  83. repec:zbw:rwirep:0350 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2023. "A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  85. Tihana ŠKRINJARIĆ & Lidija DEDI & Boško ŠEGO, 2021. "Return and Volatility Spillover between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Croatia: A Spillover Methodology Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 93-108, December.
  86. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  87. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2009. "Nonlinear Stock Price Adjustment in the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-04140874, HAL.
  88. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
  89. Szymon Lis & Marcin Chlebus, 2021. "Comparison of the accuracy in VaR forecasting for commodities using different methods of combining forecasts," Working Papers 2021-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  90. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Tarasyuk, Irina, 2015. "Missing mean does no harm to volatility!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 62-64.
  91. Burhan F. Yavas & Lidija Dedi & Tihana Škrinjarić, 2022. "Did equity returns and volatilities change after the 2016 Trump election victory?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1291-1308, January.
  92. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 102, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  93. Sanchez, Ismael, 2006. "Short-term prediction of wind energy production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-56.
  94. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Leading indicators of financial stress in Croatia: a regime switching approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 205-232.
  95. K=osaku Takanashi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2019. "Equivariant online predictions of non-stationary time series," Papers 1911.08662, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
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