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Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises

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Cited by:

  1. Constantin Rudolf Salomo Bürgi, 2023. "How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 2185975-218, December.
  2. Demiralp, Selva & King, Sharmila & Scotti, Chiara, 2019. "Does anyone listen when politicians talk? The effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 95-111.
  3. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
  4. Jackson Laura E. & Kliesen Kevin L. & Owyang Michael T., 2020. "The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-19, September.
  5. Wendy Nyakabawo & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2018. "High-Frequency Impact of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Surprises on US MSAs and Aggregate US Housing Returns and Volatility: A GJR-GARCH Approach," Working Papers 201817, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
  8. Juan M. Londono & Mary Tian, 2014. "Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1117, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," Working papers 69, Red Investigadores de Economía.
  10. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
  11. Daniel O. Beltran & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Matteo Iacoviello & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Canlin Li & Juan M. Londono & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures," International Finance Discussion Papers 1216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
  13. Markus Leippold & Felix Matthys, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Yield Curve [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 751-797.
  14. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram, 2020. "Forecast performance in times of terrorism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 386-402.
  15. Yanele Nyamela & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Frequency-dependent real-time effects of uncertainty in the United States: evidence from daily data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(19), pages 1562-1566, November.
  16. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
  17. Michael Stiefel & Rémi Vivès, 2022. "‘Whatever it takes’ to change belief: evidence from Twitter," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 715-747, August.
  18. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
  19. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," Working Papers hal-03554141, HAL.
  20. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2018. "To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 189-192.
  21. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  22. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  23. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
  24. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 662-679, August.
  25. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(25), pages 2865-2887, May.
  26. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  27. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
  28. Fulop, Andras & Kocsis, Zalan, 2023. "News indices on country fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  29. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
  31. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  32. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Crude oil futures trading and uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 793-811.
  33. Smietanka, Pawel & Bloom, Nicholas & Mizen, Paul, 2018. "Business investment, cash holding and uncertainty since the Great Financial Crisis," Bank of England working papers 753, Bank of England.
  34. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
  35. Born, Benjamin & Dovern, Jonas & Enders, Zeno, 2023. "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  36. Shinohara, Takeshi & Okuda, Tatsushi & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2021. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 72(3), pages 246-267, July.
  37. Feng, Zhuozhao & Lin, Juan, 2023. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and firms’ investment in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  38. Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Leopold Sögner, 2023. "Financial and economic uncertainties and their effects on the economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-521, May.
  39. Osamah Al-Khazali & Elie Bouri & David Roubaud, 2018. "The impact of positive and negative macroeconomic news surprises: Gold versus Bitcoin," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 373-382.
  40. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
  41. Thiemo Fetzer & Ivan Yotzov, 2023. "(How) Do Electoral Surprises Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from a New Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10584, CESifo.
  42. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Spillover among financial, industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  43. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
  44. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  45. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  46. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  47. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  48. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
  49. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
  50. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Uddin Gazi Salah & Troster Victor, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
  51. Çekin, Semih Emre & Hkiri, Besma & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "The relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in advanced economies: Evidence from time- and frequency-domains," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-87.
  52. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Vector Autoregressions," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 148, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  53. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  54. Julius Loermann, 2021. "The impact of CHF/EUR exchange rate uncertainty on Swiss exports to the Eurozone: evidence from a threshold VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1363-1385, March.
  55. Gitanjali Kumar, 2013. "High-Frequency Real Economic Activity Indicator for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-42, Bank of Canada.
  56. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
  57. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Micheal Kofi Boachie & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Network Analysis of Economic and Financial Uncertainties in Advanced Economies: Evidence from Graph-Theory," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(1), pages 188-215, March.
  58. Erhan Uluceviz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2020. "Real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-20, December.
  59. Yin, Libo & Su, Zhi & Lu, Man, 2022. "Is oil risk important for commodity-related currency returns?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  60. Aye, Goodness C. & Kotur, Lydia N., 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on agricultural growth in Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2), June.
  61. Michael Stiefel & Rémi Vivès, 2019. "“Whatever it Takes” to Change Belief: Evidence from Twitter," AMSE Working Papers 1907, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Mar 2019.
  62. Medovikov, Ivan, 2016. "When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
  63. Ozturk, Ezgi O. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2018. "Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-295.
  64. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
  65. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
  66. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  67. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  68. Bahloul, Walid & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic news surprises and uncertainty for major economies on returns and volatility of oil futures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 247-253.
  69. Sirio Aramonte & Chiara Scotti & Ilknur Zer, 2020. "Measuring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 143-178, October.
  70. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Kim Nguyen & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "Start Spreading the News: News Sentiment and Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  72. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
  73. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
  74. Yi‐Ting Peng & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2022. "Analyzing the degree of persistence of economic policy uncertainty using linear and non‐linear fourier quantile unit root tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(4), pages 453-471, July.
  75. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2021. "Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  76. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Mandaci, Pinar Evrim, 2023. "Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  77. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Realized US Stock Market Volatility: Is there a Role for Economic Policy Uncertainty?," Working Papers 202408, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  78. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
  79. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2017. "The international REIT’s time-varying response to the U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 640-653.
  80. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
  81. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  82. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
  83. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
  84. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency : The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  85. Maryam Abid & Danish Ahmed Siddique, 2020. "Impact of Financial Market Uncertainty on Market Returns: A Global Analysis," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 216-244, September.
  86. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
  87. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 555-580, December.
  88. Lv, Wendai, 2018. "Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 916-922.
  89. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Connectedness in implied higher-order moments of precious metals and energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
  90. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
  91. Ivan Medovikov, 2014. "When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires," Papers 1410.8427, arXiv.org.
  92. Michael Ehrmann & Paul Hubert, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," Working papers 897, Banque de France.
  93. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  94. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  95. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
  96. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Felix Matthys & Emilio Osambela & Ronnie Sircar, 2021. "When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  97. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
  98. Dbouk, Wassim & Moussawi-Haidar, Lama & Jaber, Mohamad Y., 2020. "The effect of economic uncertainty on inventory and working capital for manufacturing firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
  99. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Shivambu, Rinsuna, 2021. "Uncertainty and daily predictability of housing returns and volatility of the United States: Evidence from a higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 200-206.
  100. Jorge M. Uribe & Montserrat Guillen, 2020. "Generalized Market Uncertainty Measurement in European Stock Markets in Real Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-11, December.
  101. Alessandra Canepa, & Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2022. "Forecasting Ination: A GARCH-in-Mean-Level Model with Time Varying Predictability," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202212, University of Turin.
  102. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  103. Hua Cheng & Kishore Gawande & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi, 2020. "Get beyond policy uncertainty: Evidence from political connections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
  104. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2020. "A replication of "A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models" (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-14.
  105. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
  106. Douglas de Medeiros Franco, 2022. "Expectations, Economic Uncertainty, and Sentiment," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 26(5), pages 210029-2100.
  107. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
  108. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency: The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  109. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
  110. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
  111. Anzuini, Alessio & Rossi, Luca & Tommasino, Pietro, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  112. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2021. "Dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy on oil market returns and volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-169.
  113. Ding, Yibing & Liu, Ziyu & Liu, Dayu, 2022. "Structural news shock, financial market uncertainty and China's business fluctuations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  114. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  115. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
  116. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
  117. Julio E. Sandubete & León Beleña & Juan Carlos García-Villalobos, 2023. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Model-Data Paradox of Chaos on Top Currencies from the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
  118. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
  119. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "The Impact of Risk Cycles on Business Cycles: A Historical View," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(7), pages 2922-2961.
  120. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  121. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2023. "The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation," Working Paper 2023/3, Norges Bank.
  122. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  123. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  124. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  125. Frederik Neugebauer, 2020. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 20-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  126. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
  127. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  128. Prasad Teja DAKEY, 2023. "Measuring stock market uncertainty," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(635), S), pages 149-162, Summer.
  129. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers hal-04196053, HAL.
  130. Neugebauer, Frederik, 2019. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203554, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  131. Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  150. Gkillas Konstantinos & Gupta Rangan & Vortelinos Dimitrios I., 2023. "Uncertainty and realized jumps in the pound-dollar exchange rate: evidence from over one century of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(1), pages 25-47, February.
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  152. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2018. "The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 705-719, November.
  153. Tong, Chen & Huang, Zhuo & Wang, Tianyi & Zhang, Cong, 2023. "The effects of economic uncertainty on financial volatility: A comprehensive investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-389.
  154. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
  155. Alessio Anzuini & Luca Rossi, 2021. "Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2613-2634, November.
  156. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
  157. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates of a single currency: The Chinese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 558-576.
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  162. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
  163. Berardi, Michele, 2022. "Uncertainty and sentiments in asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 498-516.
  164. Ariel M. Viale & Antoine Giannetti & Luis Garcia-Feijoó, 2020. "The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(1), pages 65-97, March.
  165. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The realized volatility of commodity futures: Interconnectedness and determinants#," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 139-151.
  166. Mohsin, Muhammad & Jamaani, Fouad, 2023. "Green finance and the socio-politico-economic factors’ impact on the future oil prices: Evidence from machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  167. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Micheal Kofi Boachie & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Network Analysis of Economic and Financial Uncertainties in Advanced Economies: Evidence from Graph-Theory," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(1), pages 188-215, March.
  168. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  169. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Yubo & Gao, Wang & Li, Yingli, 2023. "Extreme quantile spillovers and drivers among clean energy, electricity and energy metals markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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  175. Wendy Nyakabawo & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2018. "High Frequency Impact Of Monetary Policy And Macroeconomic Surprises On Us Msas, Aggregate Us Housing Returns And Asymmetric Volatility," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 204-229, December.
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  180. Peter Tillmann, 2019. "Trump Pressuring the Fed," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201920, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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