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Haircut size, haircut type and the probability of serial sovereign debt restructurings

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  • Schröder, Christoph

Abstract

This paper complements the empirical literature on sovereign debt restructurings by analyzing potential determinants of (near-term) follow-up restructurings after a restructuring has taken place. The probability of follow-up restructurings is estimated by means of survival models using a unique dataset provided by Cruces and Trebesch (2013). I find that more comprehensive debt remissions decrease the probability of serial restructurings significantly. Moreover, reductions in net present value due to outright face value haircuts reduce the probability of serial restructurings more strongly than equally sized reductions in net present value due to maturity extensions and/or interest rate reductions. One possible explanation may be found in the timing of debt remissions: While a cut in face value provides direct and instant relief, maturity exten-sions and/or lower interest rates only unburden a country slowly over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Schröder, Christoph, 2014. "Haircut size, haircut type and the probability of serial sovereign debt restructurings," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-126, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:14126
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    serial restructurings; sovereign debt restructuring; sovereign debt haircuts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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