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Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Espino
  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Fernando M. Martin
  • Juan M. Sanchez

Abstract

A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default," Working Papers 2020-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 06 Sep 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88355
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Emerging markets

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," Staff Report 603, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    limited commitment; sovereign debt; inflation; fiscal policy; monetary policy; emerging markets; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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