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How China's farmers adapt to climate change

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  • Wang, Jinxia
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Huang, Jikun

Abstract

This paper uses a cross sectional method to analyze irrigation choice and crop choice across 8,405 farmers in 28 provinces in China. The findings show that Chinese farmers are more likely to irrigate when facing lower temperatures and less precipitation. Farmers in warmer places are more likely to choose oil crops, maize, and especially cotton and wheat, and are less likely to choose vegetables, potatoes, sugar, and especially rice and soybeans. In wetter locations, farmers are more likely to choose soybeans, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, cotton, and especially rice, and they are less likely to choose potatoes, wheat, and especially maize. The analysis of how Chinese farmers have adapted to current climate, provides insight into how they will likely adapt when climate changes. Future climate scenarios will cause farmers in China to want to reduce irrigation and shift toward oil crops, wheat, and especially cotton. In turn, farmers will shift away from potatoes, rice, vegetables, and soybeans. However, adaptation will likely vary greatly from region to region. Policy makers should anticipate that adaptation is important, that the magnitude of changes depends on the climate scenario, andthat the desired changes depend on the location of each farm.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4758.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4758

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Keywords: Crops&Crop Management Systems; Climate Change; Rural Poverty Reduction; Common Property Resource Development; Agriculture&Farming Systems;

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References

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  1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-101, February.
  2. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
  3. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
  4. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), March.
  5. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "An analysisof crop choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4162, The World Bank.
  6. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
  7. Mendelsohn, Robert & Seo, Sungno Niggol, 2007. "Climate change impacts on animal husbandry in Africa : a Ricardian analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4261, The World Bank.
  8. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
  9. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel, 1999. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 277-93, August.
  10. Robert Mendelsohn & William D. Nordhaus & Daigee Shaw, 1993. "Measuring the Impact of Global Warming in Agriculture," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1045, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4278, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay & Limin Wang & Marcus Wijnen, 2011. "Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12764, The World Bank.
  2. Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
  3. Hansen, James M. & Tuan, Francis C. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2012. "Climate Change and The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization: Possible Effects on China's Grain Trade," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, International Association of Agricultural Economists 126878, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Jingkui Zhou, 2011. "Climate change, health and migration in urban China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 592-615, December.

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