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A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland

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  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms areespecially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4305.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4305

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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Environmental Economics&Policies; Global Environment Facility; Common Property Resource Development; Crops&Crop Management Systems;

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Cited by:
  1. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.
  2. Charles Nhemachena & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2010. "Measuring The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On African Agricultural Production Systems," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 33-55.
  3. World Bank, 2009. "Africa - Making Development Climate Resilient : A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3211, The World Bank.
  4. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
  5. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2012. "Climate Variability and Crop Yields in Northern Ghana: What Role for Crop-Livestock Integration," 2012 Eighth AFMA Congress, November 25-29, 2012, Nairobi, Kenya 159384, African Farm Management Association (AFMA).
  6. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2008. "How China's farmers adapt to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4758, The World Bank.
  7. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
  8. Witt, Rudolf & Waibel, Hermann, 2011. "Constraints to diversification of poor fishery-dependent households in Cameroon," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(2), September.
  9. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states:," IFPRI discussion papers 806, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Ajao, A.O. & Ogunniyi, L.T., 2011. "Farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change in Ogbomoso agricultural zone of Oyo state," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 3(3), September.
  11. Seo, Sungno Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa : a structural Ricardian analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4279, The World Bank.
  12. Witt, Rudolf & Waibel, Hermann, 2009. "Lower Partial Moments as a measure of vulnerability to poverty in Cameroon," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-434, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  13. Seo, Sungno Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in Africa : a microeconomic analysis of livestock choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4277, The World Bank.
  14. Adesina, Akinwumi A., 2009. "Africa's Food Crisis: Conditioning Trends and Global Development Policy," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53199, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  15. Mendelsohn, Robert & Seo, Niggol, 2007. "Changing farm types and irrigation as an adaptation to climate change in Latin American agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4161, The World Bank.
  16. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank.
  17. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
  18. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
  19. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4601, The World Bank.
  20. Nordhagen, Stella & Pascual, Unai, 2013. "The Impact of Climate Shocks on Seed Purchase Decisions in Malawi: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 238-251.

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