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A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland

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Author Info

  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa, using a Ricardian cross-sectional approach. Relying on farm data from an 11-country survey of over 9500 farmers, annual net revenue is regressed on climate and other variables. The study confirms that current climate affects the net revenues of farms across Africa. Applying these results to possible future climates reveals that dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Even as early as 2020, climate change could have strong negative impacts on currently dry and hot locations. By 2100, dryland crop net revenues could rise by 51% if future warming is mild and wet but fall by 43% if future climates are hot and dry. The crop net revenues of currently irrigated farms are likely to be least affected.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56965
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by African Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 02 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:afjare:56965

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Web page: http://www.aaae-africa.org/afjare
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Related research

Keywords: Climate change; Agriculture; Valuation; Africa; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q12; Q25;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2009. "Africa - Making Development Climate Resilient : A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3211, The World Bank.
  2. Witt, Rudolf & Waibel, Hermann, 2011. "Constraints to diversification of poor fishery-dependent households in Cameroon," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(2), September.
  3. Adesina, Akinwumi A., 2009. "Africa's Food Crisis: Conditioning Trends and Global Development Policy," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53199, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states:," IFPRI discussion papers 806, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2009. "How China’S Farmers Adapt To Climate Change?," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51803, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Hassan, Rashid & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4599, The World Bank.
  7. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
  8. Nordhagen, Stella & Pascual, Unai, 2013. "The Impact of Climate Shocks on Seed Purchase Decisions in Malawi: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 238-251.
  9. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4601, The World Bank.
  10. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank.
  11. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2012. "Climate Variability and Crop Yields in Northern Ghana: What Role for Crop-Livestock Integration," 2012 Eighth AFMA Congress, November 25-29, 2012, Nairobi, Kenya 159384, African Farm Management Association (AFMA).
  12. Charles Nhemachena & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2010. "Measuring The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On African Agricultural Production Systems," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 33-55.
  13. Witt, Rudolf & Waibel, Hermann, 2009. "Lower Partial Moments as a measure of vulnerability to poverty in Cameroon," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-434, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  14. Ajao, A.O. & Ogunniyi, L.T., 2011. "Farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change in Ogbomoso agricultural zone of Oyo state," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 3(3), September.
  15. Seo, Sungno Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa : a structural Ricardian analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4279, The World Bank.
  16. Mendelsohn, Robert & Seo, Niggol, 2007. "Changing farm types and irrigation as an adaptation to climate change in Latin American agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4161, The World Bank.
  17. Seo, Sungno Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in Africa : a microeconomic analysis of livestock choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4277, The World Bank.
  18. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.
  19. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.

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