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Differential adaptation strategies to climate change in African cropland by agro-ecological zones

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  • Seo, Niggol
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Hassan, Rashid

Abstract

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate scenario but less often with a mild and wet scenario. However, farms in the deserts, lowland humid forest, or mid elevation humid forest would reduce irrigation even in the very hot and dry climate scenario. Area under fruits and vegetables would increase Africa-wide with the very hot and dry climate scenario, except in the lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zone. Millet would increase overall under the mild and wet scenario, but decline substantially in the lowland dry savannah and lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zones. Maize would be chosen less often across all the agro-ecological zones under both climate scenarios. Wheat would decrease across Africa. The authors recommend that care must be taken to match adaptations to local conditions because the optimal adaptation would depend on the agro-ecological zone and the climate scenario.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4600.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4600

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Keywords: Crops&Crop Management Systems; Climate Change; Food&Beverage Industry; Renewable Energy; Rural Poverty Reduction;

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  1. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "An analysisof crop choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4162, The World Bank.
  2. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
  3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Williams, Larry, 2006. "The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 159-178, April.
  4. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4278, The World Bank.
  5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  6. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
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