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Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run

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Author Info
Ricarda Demarmels () (University of St. Gallen and Swiss National Bank)
Andreas Fischer () (Swiss National Bank and CEPR)

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openess are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 03.03.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0303

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  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jean-François Perrault, 2002. "Private Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Spring), pages 33-43. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
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  16. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2002. "Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 631-49, August.
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  17. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 17-32. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Daniel Navia, 2005. "Say You Fix, Enjoy And Relax The Deleterious Effect Of Peg Announcements On Fiscal Discipline," International Finance 0509001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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