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The Role of Politics and Institutions in LDC Currency Devaluations

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  • Anja Shortland

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Abstract

This paper examines political, institutional and economic determinants of exchange rate performance in less developed countries in the 1990s. It models exchange rate depreciations as two separate processes, firstly a process determining whether a currency is devalued and secondly a process determining the size of devaluation. The paper utilizes the most recent political and institutional data as well as a new index of central bank governor turnover in the 1990s to examine the relative importance of political and economic factors. While institutional and political factors dominate the probability of devaluation, the size of devaluations is mainly governed by economic factors.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp04-30.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 04/30.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:04/30

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Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
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Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
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Web: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers

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Keywords: exchange rate systems; less developed countries; speculative attack; fundamentals; institutions;

References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," NBER Working Papers 3603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Dreyer, Jacob S., 1978. "Determinants of exchange-rate regimes for currencies of developing countries: Some preliminary results," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 437-445, April.
  4. A. Bénassy-Quéré & B. Cœuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange rate Regimes," THEMA Working Papers 2002-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  5. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990," IMF Working Papers 02/155, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August.
  8. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  9. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
  10. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2002. "How does Political Violence Affect Currency Substitution? Evidence from Egypt," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  11. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
  12. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  13. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8392, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Fielding, David & Mizen, Paul, 2001. "Seigniorage revenue, deficits and self-fulfilling currency crises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 81-93, June.
  15. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
  16. Nienke Oomes, 2003. "Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis," IMF Working Papers 03/96, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Forder, James, 1996. "On the Assessment and Implementation of 'Institutional' Remedies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 39-51, January.
  19. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
  20. Beck, T.H.L. & Clarke, G. & Groff, A. & Keefer , P. & Walsh, P., 2001. "New tools in comparative political economy: The database of political institutions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517, Tilburg University.
  21. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.

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