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Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run

  • Demarmels, Ricarda
  • Fischer, Andreas M

In this Paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973-2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3908.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3908
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  1. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jean-François Perrault, 2002. "Private Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Spring), pages 33-43.
  19. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 17-32.
  22. Ben-Bassat, Avraham, 1980. "The optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 285-295, May.
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