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Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run

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Listed author(s):
  • Demarmels, Ricarda
  • Fischer, Andreas M

Abstract

In this Paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973-2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3908.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3908
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Keywords: emerging markets; openness; reserve volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
  • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  3. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
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  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  7. Philip Lane & Dominic Burke, 2001. "The Empirics of Foreign Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 423-434, October.
  8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
  9. Jean-François Perrault, 2002. "Private Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Spring), pages 33-43.
  10. Robert P Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  13. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  14. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 17-32.
  16. Carlo Cottarelli & Curzio Giannini, 1997. "Credibility Without Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 154, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  19. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2002. "Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 631-649, August.
  20. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
  21. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management," NBER Working Papers 8837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Daniel Navia, 2005. "Say You Fix, Enjoy And Relax The Deleterious Effect Of Peg Announcements On Fiscal Discipline," International Finance 0509001, EconWPA.
  2. Catherine S. F. Ho & M. Ariff, 2008. "The Role of Non-Parity Fundamentals in Exchange Rate Determination: Australia and the Asia Pacific Region," CARF F-Series CARF-F-125, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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