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Say you fix, enjoy and relax: the deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline

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Author Info
Enrique Alberola () (Banco de España)
Luis Molina () (Banco de España)
Daniel Navia () (Banco de España)

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Abstract

This paper explores the impact of actual exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, which we purportedly link to the effect of announcing the peg and to the availability of external funds. To stress this point, the focus of the analysis is emerging markets spanning from the beginning of the nineties, given the importance of financial integration in the last fifteen years and the centrality of external financing for these countries. We empirically show that announcing the pegs has deleterious effects on fiscal discipline, while "de facto" pegs which have not been announced deliver superior fiscal outcomes. The evidence suggests that this is due to the initial positive credibility shock of the announcement, which allows for easier and less costly access to the financing of fiscal deficits in emerging countries.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/05/Fic/dt0523e.pdf
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File Function: First version, August 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0523.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0523

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina," NBER Working Papers 9257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ricarda Demarmels & Andreas Fischer, 2003. "Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run," Working Papers 03.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  5. Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S16-S48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization - ACritical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/132, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Countries Versus Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 10673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  15. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1998. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of a nominal anchor in stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Agustín Maravall, 2005. "An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Banco de España Working Papers 0524, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Banco de España Working Papers 0527, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Óscar J. Arce & David López-Salido, 2006. "House Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates under Collateral Constraints," Banco de España Working Papers 0610, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0604, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gabriel Jiménez & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit market competition, collateral and firms' finance," Banco de España Working Papers 0612, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paloma López-García & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Business demography in Spain: determinants of firm survival," Banco de España Working Papers 0608, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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