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Economic Growth, Energy demand and Atmospheric Pollution: Challenges and Opportunities for China in the future 30 years

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Author Info

  • Jie He

    ()
    (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

  • David Roland-Holst

    ()
    (Mills College, UC Berkeley, and RDRC)

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic CGE model, calibrated to detailed Chinese emissions data, to assess two important questions. What can we reasonably expect Chinese emissions trends to look like over the next three decades? Secondly, what would be the appropriate policy interventions to flatten Chinese emissions trajectories and reduce the risk of local, regional, and even global adversity? This research is original in its direct use of the new industrial sector-level emissions and energy using data from China to estimate the energy-specific emission effluent rate and its detailed treatment of policies taking account of the three main determinants of pollution intensity: growth, output composition, and technological change. Our results indicate that, without further effective emission control measures, China’s economic growth over the next two decades will contribute significantly to SO2 emission problems, in which the emission firstly increase from the rapid expansion of the transportation service sectors until 2018, then from the heavy industrialization process after 2018. With the potential technical progress, the emission burden will be centralized back to two energy sectors: electricity generation and petrol and coke refining during these two periods. Detailed examination of the structural and technological components of pollution shows that efficient pollution mitigation can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, and advances in cleaner fuel products and their use technologies.

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File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-1011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 10-11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 26 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:10-11

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Keywords: China; Global warming; CGE modeling;

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References

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  1. Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der & Roland-Holst, David & Dessus, Sebastien & Beghin, John, 1998. "The interface between growth, trade, pollution and natural resource use in Chile: evidence from an economywide model," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(1-2), September.
  2. Lluch, Constantino, 1973. "The extended linear expenditure system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 21-32, April.
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  7. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David, 1997. "The environment and welfare implications of trade and tax policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 65-82, February.
  8. Dessus, Sebastien & Bussolo, Maurizio, 1998. "Is There a Trade-off Between Trade Liberalization and Pollution Abatement?: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment Applied to Costa Rica," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-31, February.
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  12. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Productivity and externalities : models of export led growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 387, The World Bank.
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  14. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2007. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6d28j8rg, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  15. John Beghin & Sébastien Dessus & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1996. "General Equilibrium Modelling of Trade and the Environment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 116, OECD Publishing.
  16. He, Jie, 2005. "Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 364-402.
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