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The Doha Round, poverty, and regional inequality in Brazil

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  • Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira
  • Horridge, Mark

Abstract

This paper addresses the potential effects of the Doha round of trade negotiations on poverty and income distribution in Brazil, using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) and micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income distribution and poverty analysis. Of particular importance is the fact that the representative household hypothesis is replaced by a detailed representation of households. The model distinguishes 10 different labor types and has 270 different household expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different production activities (which produce 52 commodities), located in 27 different regions in the country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation model that has 112,055 Brazilian households and 263,938 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are computed over the entire sample of households and persons, before and after the policy shocks. Model results show that even important trade policy shocks, such as those applied in this study, do not generate dramatic changes in the structure of poverty and income distribution in the Brazilian economy. The simulated effects on poverty and income distribution are positive, but rather small. The benefits are concentrated in the poorest households.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3701.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3701

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Poverty Assessment; Inequality; Services&Transfers to Poor;

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References

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  1. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  2. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
  2. Moreira, Guilherme R.C. & Almeida, Leandro & Guilhoto, Joaquim M. & Azzoni, Carlos R., 2008. "Productive structure and income distribution: The Brazilian case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 320-332, May.
  3. Arndt, Channing, 2005. "The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3717, The World Bank.
  4. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, International Association of Agricultural Economists 125105, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. repec:idb:brikps:72378 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Moreira, Guilherme Renato Caldo & Ichihara, Silvio Massaru & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2007. "O impacto do aumento das exportações de álcool sobre a distribuição de renda do Brasil
    [The impact of the increased exports of ethanol on the distribution of income of the Brazil]
    ," MPRA Paper 31517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2012. "Linking a Microsimulation Model to a Dynamic CGE Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 40-58.
  8. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2009. "Linking a Dynamic CGE Model and a Microsimulation Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne wp2009n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 2006. "Consequences of price volatility in evaluating the benefits of liberalisation," MPRA Paper 4467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2009. "Would Trade Liberalization Help the Poor of Brazil?," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper, World Bank 52795, World Bank.
  11. Hertel, Thomas W. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3757, The World Bank.
  12. Paolo Giordano & Kun Li, 2012. "An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America," IDB Publications 79119, Inter-American Development Bank.
  13. Ludena, Carlos E. & Schuschny, Andres & de Miguel, Carlos & Duran Lima, Jose E., 2009. "Georeferenced Assessment of Trade Liberalization Effects on Agriculture in Ecuador," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China, International Association of Agricultural Economists 50556, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  14. Anonymous, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1).
  15. Allexandro Mori Coelho & Maria Lúcia L. M. Pádua Lima & Samir Cury & Sergio Goldbaum, 2006. "Impacts Of The Proposals For Tariff Reductions In Nonagricultural Goods (Nama)," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of G 121, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  16. Nicolas Hérault, 2010. "Sequential linking of Computable General Equilibrium and microsimulation models: a comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-42.
  17. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," Working Papers, Lund University, Department of Economics 2012:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  18. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).
  19. Goldbaum, Sergio & Coelho, Allexandro Mori & Lima, Maria Lúcia L. M. Pádua & Cury, Samir, 2006. "Impacts of the Proposals For Tariff Reductions in Non-Agricultural Market Access (Nama)," Textos para discussão 155, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  20. Sriniketh Nagavarapu, 2008. "Brazilian Ethanol: A Gift or Threat to the Environment and Regional Development?," Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research 07-039, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

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