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Economic Integration, Poverty and Regional Inequality in Brazil

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  • Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho
  • Mark Horridge

Abstract

Gains and losses from trade liberalization are often unevenly distributed inside a country. For example, if budget shares vary according to household income, changes in commodity prices will redistribute an overall welfare change between household types. Household incomes will also be differentially affected. Sectoral differences in factor-intensity mean that changes in industrial structure cause redistribution of income between primary factors. Particular primary factors (such as capital, or less skilled labour) may contribute disproportionately to the incomes of certain household types. The fortunes of such households indirectly depend on the prospects of particular sectors. We emphasize these distributive issues, especially those arising from the income side. At the same time we distinguish households by regions (within the country). The regional distinction sharpens the contrast between groups of households. Particular regions have their own patterns of economic activity and so are differently affected by changes in the industrial protection structure. Since regional household incomes depend closely on value-added from local industries, economic change will tend to redistribute income between regional households. If the regional concentration of poverty is more than we could predict by regional primary factor endowments and industry structure, the addition of a regional dimension will add power to our analysis of income distribution beyond the mere addition of interesting regional detail. The paper deals with these issues more fully. We extend previous regional modeling of Brazil to include the intra-household dimension, addressing poverty and income distribution issues that may be caused by trade integration. An applied general equilibrium (AGE) inter-regional model of Brazil underlies our analysis, with a detailed specification of households. The model is static and solved with GEMPACK. The Representative Household (RH) hypothesis is abandoned; instead a micro-simulation (MS) model is used to track changes in household income and expenditure patterns. This micro-simulation model is built upon two Brazilian household studies: (1) the Household Budget Survey (POF, IBGE, 1999) covers detailed expenditure patterns for 16,013 households and 11 regions in Brazil in 1996; (2) the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD, IBGE, 1997) is a yearly survey that includes detailed information about household employment and income sources, with 331,263 observations. We integrate the two data sources to produce a detailed mapping of expenditure and income sources for 112,055 Brazilian households and 263,938 adults, distinguishing 42 activities, 52 commodities, and 27 regions. We link the AGE and MS models together, solving them iteratively to get consistency between results. After a shock the AGE model communicates changes in wages and employment by industry and labour type to the MS model that individually simulates the changes in employment, income and expenditure patterns for each household. The new expenditure pattern is then communicated to the AGE model, and the process is repeated until the two models converge. The final results from the MS model enable us to estimate changes in poverty and income distribution measures, both nationally and for regions within Brazil. We use the model to analyze poverty and income distribution impacts of the Free Trade Area of Americas formation upon the Brazilian economy. In the particular simulation we examine, freer trade leads to increased employment, especially for lower-paid workers. Poor households, which contain more unemployed adults, benefit most. This leads to a reduction in poverty in all 27 Brazilian states.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-149.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Publication status: Published in Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Financas, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(4), pages 363-388, February 2006.
Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-149

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Keywords: CGE microsimulation Brazil regional poverty;

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References

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  1. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Rodolphe Missinhoun & Luc Savard, 2007. "Reformes Economiques Et Croissance Pro-Pauvre : Une Application Macro-Micro Aux Philippines," Cahiers de recherche 07-17, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
  2. Marie Daumal, 2010. "The impact of trade openness on regional inequality : the cases of India and Brazil," Working Papers DT/2010/04, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  3. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Luc Savard & A. Diagne, 2004. "Impacts De La Libéralisation Commerciale De L’Agriculture Sur La Pauvreté Et La Distribution De Revenus Au Sénégal," Cahiers de recherche 04-11, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
  4. Hasegawa, Marcos & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2006. "Investimento e produtividade dos fatores primários: uma análise de equilíbrio geral aplicado
    [Investment and productivity of primary factors: a general applied general equilibrium analysis]
    ," MPRA Paper 54555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Yusuf, Arief Anshory, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 1730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Joaquim B de Souza Ferreira Filho & Carliton V dos Santos & Sandra M do Prado Lima, 2010. "Case Study: Tax reform, income distribution and poverty in Brazil: an applied general equilibrium analysis," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 114-117.
  7. Edson Paulo Domingues & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2012. "The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market," Working Papers 96, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  8. Bittencourt, Mauricio V.L. & Kraybill, David S. & Larson, Donald W., 2006. "Consequences Of Trade Liberalization On Poverty And Income Distribution In Brazil," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21128, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  9. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Wim Naudé & Riaan Rossouw, 2011. "Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 99-134, April.
  11. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007.
  12. Aline Souza Magalhães & Edson Domingues, 2009. "Regional inequality and growth: the role of interregional trade in the Brazilian economy," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td359, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  13. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.

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