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Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia

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  • Yusuf, Arief Anshory
  • Resosudarmo, Budy P.

Abstract

Economic structure, households energy consumption pattern, and household's pattern of factor income in developing countries may typically be different with those of the developed countries, hence the distributional impact of energy price reforms could be. This may be portrayed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with disaggregated households that allows for rich and accurate distributional story. Using this method, counter-factual scenarios analysis of recent energy price reform in Indonesia is carried out. The result suggests that vehicle fuels subsidy is regressive but increasing the price of domestic fuel (such as kerosene) tends to increase inequality, unless accompanied by a proper and effective compensation scheme. Distributional impact does depend on compensation scheme, its form and its effectiveness. Cash transfers to the poor with moderate ineffectiveness, for example, could not even prevent the increase in poverty nation-wide. Giving more cash to urban poor than to rural poor might have been better than a simple uniform cash transfers, due to urban poor's dependence on kerosene. The result also suggests that non-cash compensation, by subsidizing the poor's education and health spending may not be effective to mitigate the reform despite its desirability as longer-term poverty alleviation programs.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1946/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2350/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1946.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1946

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Keywords: Energy price reform; Distribution; CGE; Indonesia;

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  1. Iwan J. Azis, 2000. "Simulating economy-wide models to capture the transition from financial crisis to social crisis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 251-278.
  2. Sherman, Robinson & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Bourguignon, François, 2005. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modelling of inequality," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4535, Paris Dauphine University.
  3. Yusuf, Arief Anshory, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 1730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Peter Warr, 2006. "The Gregory Thesis Visits the Tropics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(257), pages 177-194, 06.
  5. World Bank, 2006. "Making the New Indonesia Work for the Poor," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8172, The World Bank.
  6. Deaton, A. & Case, A., 1988. "Analysis Of Household Expenditures," Papers 28, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  7. Caesar B. Cororaton & John Cockburn, 2005. "Trade Reform and Poverty in the Philippines: a Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0513, CIRPEE.
  8. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Papers 9909, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
  9. Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho & Mark Horridge, 2004. "Economic Integration, Poverty and Regional Inequality in Brazil," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-149, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  10. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Hong-Sang Jung, 2003. "Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 03/204, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
  12. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  13. Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty and Income Distribution in a CGE-Household Micro-Simulation Model: Top-Down/Bottom Up Approach," Cahiers de recherche 0343, CIRPEE.
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