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Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis

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Author Info
Nabil Annabi
Fatou Cisse
John Cockburn
Bernard Decaluwe

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Abstract

An integrated sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to study the potential poverty and inequality effects of a complete tariff removal in Senegal. The model is calibrated with a 1996 social accounting matrix and a 1995 survey of 3278 households. The outcomes indicate small short run negative impacts in terms of welfare and poverty. In the long run, growth effects captured by the model bring an expansion of the industrial and services sectors and substantial poverty decreases. However, the decomposition of the results shows that the contribution of the redistribution component to poverty alleviation is negative.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2005-07.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-07

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Related research
Keywords: Dynamic CGE model; trade liberalisation; poverty; inequality; Senegal; market access; CGEM;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas Hertel & Jeffrey Reimer, 2005. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 377-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jagdish Bhagwati & T. N. Srinivasan, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nabil Annabi & H. Khondker Bazlul & Selim Raihan & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run," Cahiers de recherche MPIA 2005-02, PEP-MPIA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Papers 9909, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    Other versions:
  5. John Cockburn, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Development and Comp Systems 0409012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. François Bourguignon & William H. Branson & Jaime de Melo, 1989. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Macro-Micro Simulation Model," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 1, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Reconciling Household Surveys and National Accounts Data Using a Cross Entropy Estimation Method," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 395-406, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2003. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 93-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Davies, James B., 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. G. A. Abbink & M. C. Braber & S. I. Cohen, 1995. "A Sam-Cge Demonstration Model For Indonesia: Static And Dynamic Specifications And Experiments," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 15-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  13. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yusuf, Arief Anshory, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 1730, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Veronique Salins, 2005. "Impact de l'ouverture financiere sur les inegalites internes dans les pays emergents," Working Papers 2005-11, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rina Oktaviani & Dedi Budiman Hakim & Hermanto Siregar & Sahara Sahara, 2007. "Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance, Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidences: a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Cahiers de recherche MPIA 2007-28, PEP-MPIA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2006. "Textiles Protection and Poverty in South Africa/La protection du secteur des textiles et la pauvreté en Afrique du Sud: une analyse en équilibre général calculable dynamique micro-simulé," Cahiers de recherche MPIA 2007-01, PEP-MPIA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Pricing Reform for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200701, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
  8. Guillaume Gaulier & Francoise Lemoine & Deniz Unal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2008. "Poverty, income distribution and CGE micro-simulation modeling: Does the functional form of distribution matter?," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 149-184, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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