IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/mpiacr/2007-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance, Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidences: a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rina Oktaviani
  • Dedi Budiman Hakim
  • Hermanto Siregar
  • Sahara Sahara

Abstract

Budget deficit, exchange rate fluctuation and high fuel world price provides a pressure on budget capacity to stimulate the Indonesian economy. The government has designed several fiscal policies, including reducing the fuel subsidy. The study objective is to analyse the impact of reducing fuel subsidy on macroeconomic variables, agricultural sector, and income distribution. The modification on the basic model, which is a recursive-dynamic CGE model, is made in this study. The data used in the model is of the Indonesian I-O Table 2000, The Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2000, National Household Survey data and parameter from some other sources. The results show that the reduction in fuel price subsidy tends to increase prices of industrial outputs that highly depend on fuel, such as transportation and fishery sectors. In contrast, the change in fuel price does not influence the price of paddy. Wage of skilled labor, land rent, and capital rent decline steadily in response to the change in fuel price. Households will lose their income following the reduction in fuel subsidy, which then decreases the welfare of households. Incomes are not evenly distributed within the society (household groups). An increased fuel price at consumer level declines the Indonesian real GDP. The government should give the compensation of reducing the fuel subsidy directly to the poor people. The compensation can also be given directly to the poor people through the development of infrastructure, which may solve some supply side bottlenecks in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rina Oktaviani & Dedi Budiman Hakim & Hermanto Siregar & Sahara Sahara, 2007. "Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance, Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidences: a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2007-28, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2007-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://portal.pep-net.org/documents/download/id/8512
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Working Papers 2005-07, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oktaviani, Rina & Amaliah, Syarifah & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B., 2011. "The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Pierre Joubert NGUETSE & Célestin SIKUBE TAKAMGNO & Éric Ledoux NEGUEM, 2018. "The Impact of the Liberalization of Petroleum Product Prices on the Economy of Cameroon," Working Papers 346, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    4. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "Fertilizer subsidies and food self-sufficiency in Indonesia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 571-588, September.
    5. Rina Oktaviani & Eka Puspitawati & Haryadi, 2008. "Impacts of ASEAN Agricultural Trade Liberalization on ASEAN-6 Economies and Income Distribution in Indonesia," Working Papers 5108, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    6. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007.
    7. Chatri, Fatemeh & Yahoo, Masoud & Othman, Jamal, 2018. "The economic effects of renewable energy expansion in the electricity sector: A CGE analysis for Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.
    8. Rahman, Arief & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2021. "The political economy of oil supply in Indonesia and the implications for renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Herbert W. V. Hasudungan & Sulthon S. Sabaruddin, 2016. "The Impact of Fiscal Reform on Indonesian Macroeconomy: A CGE Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(3), pages 181-202, September.
    11. Ditya Agung Nurdianto, 2016. "Economic Impacts of a Carbon Tax in an Integrated ASEAN," EEPSEA Special and Technical Paper tp201604t5, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Apr 2016.
    12. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Pricing Reform for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200701, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2007.
    13. Hadi Sasana & F. Salman & Suharnomo Suharnomo & S. B. M. Nugroho & A. G. Edy Yusuf, 2018. "The Impact of Fossil Energy Subsidies on Social Cost in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 168-173.
    14. Shamaila Aziz & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen & Sofia Anwar, 2016. "Impact of Rising Energy Prices on Consumer’s Welfare: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 605-618.
    15. Mathew Adagunodo, 2013. "Petroleum Products Pricing Reform in Nigeria: Welfare Analysis from Household Budget Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 459-472.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    2. Kebede, Sindu & Fekadu, Belay & Aredo, Dejene, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: A Macro-Micro Analysis in Ethiopia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 44, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Obeng, Camara Kwasi, 2014. "Impact of import liberalisation on poverty: a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis for Ghana," MPRA Paper 58182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession: Modeling “real” households with endogenous productivity effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 12, pages 287-306, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Véronique Salins, 2005. "Impact de l’ouverture financière sur les inégalités internes dans les pays émergents," Working Papers 2005-11, CEPII research center.
    6. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2008. "Poverty, income distribution and CGE micro-simulation modeling: Does the functional form of distribution matter?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(2), pages 149-184, June.
    7. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2009. "Liberalising Trade In South Africa: A Survey Of Computable General Equilibrium Studies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 445-464, September.
    8. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2014. "Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82.
    9. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Senesouphap, Chanthachonh & Yawdhacksa, Somnack, 2012. "Resource Boom, Growth and Poverty in Laos: what can we learn from other countries and policy simulations?," PEP Policy Briefs 161661, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    10. Rana Hendy & Chahir Zaki, 2013. "Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalization on Wage Inequalities in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 63-104, March.
    11. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
    12. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2006. "Textiles Protection and Poverty in South Africa/La protection du secteur des textiles et la pauvreté en Afrique du Sud: une analyse en équilibre général calculable dynamique micro-simulé," Working Papers MPIA 2007-01, PEP-MPIA.
    13. Fatima, Amber & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam, Faridul, 2012. "Nexus of Trade, Investment and Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(2), pages 87-108, June.
    14. Peterson, Everett B. & Graham, Thea, 2008. "Open Skies: An Assessment of the US-EU Open Aviation Area Agreement," Conference papers 331713, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Lindsay Shutes & Marijke Kuiper, 2015. "Expanding the household coverage of global simulation models: an application to Ghana," FOODSECURE Technical papers 3, LEI Wageningen UR.
    16. Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui & Chokri Thabet, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Micro-Simulation in a General Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers 402, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
    17. Harald SCHMIDBAUER & Ece DEMIREL, 2010. "Monetary Authorities and Exchange Rate Volatility: Turkey and other Cases," EcoMod2010 259600150, EcoMod.
    18. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    19. Wolfgang Britz & Yaghoob Jafari & Alexandr Nekhay & Roberto Roson, 2020. "Modeling Trade and Income Distribution in Six Developing Countries A dynamic general equilibrium analysis up to the year 2050," Working Papers 2020:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Nicolas Gobalraja & Alain Trannoy, 2005. "Tax Competition and Public Input," Working Papers 2005-08, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel subsidy; income distribution; recursive dynamic CGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2007-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuel Paradis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdvlvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.