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Would Trade Liberalization Help the Poor of Brazil?

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  • Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza
  • Horridge, Mark

Abstract

This paper addresses the potential effects of world agricultural trade liberalization on poverty and regional income distribution in Brazil, using an inter-regional applied general equilibrium (AGE) and a micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income distribution and poverty analysis by using a detailed representation of households. The model distinguishes 10 different labor types and has 270 different household expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different production activities located in 27 different regions in the country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation model that has around 112,000 Brazilian households and 264,000 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are computed over the entire sample of households and persons, before and after the policy shocks. The simulated trade liberalization scenario causes agriculture to expand considerably and so, given the importance that agriculture still has for the poorest in Brazil, it has positive impacts on poverty in Brazil. The only states which show an increase in the number of poor households are Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, where the bulk of the manufacturing activities in Brazil are concentrated. There is an even more positive impact on inequality. The higher fall in the poverty gap is shown to occur mainly on the poorest household groups, suggesting that the poorest among Brazil’s poor would benefit more from global trade liberalization.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Bank in its series Agricultural Distortions Working Paper with number 52795.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:wbadwp:52795

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Web page: http://www.worldbank.org
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Related research

Keywords: Distorted incentives; agricultural and trade policy reforms; national agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18;

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  1. Francis Green & Andy Dickerson & Jorge Saba Arbache, 2000. "A Picture of Wage Inequality and the Allocation of Labour Through a Period of Trade Liberalisation: The Case of Brazil," Studies in Economics 0013, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  2. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr,David & Gurgel, Angelo, 2003. "Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3051, The World Bank.
  3. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
  4. Anderson, Kym & Martin, William J., 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48557, World Bank.
  5. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  6. Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira & Horridge, Mark, 2005. "The Doha Round, poverty, and regional inequality in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3701, The World Bank.
  7. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Carliton Vieira dos Santos & Sandra Maria do Prado Lima, 2007. "Tax Reform, Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: an Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2007-26, PEP-MPIA.
  8. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Wong, Sara & Sandri, Damiano, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Ecuador," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48394, World Bank.
  9. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Kym Anderson, 2009. "Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis of Developing Countries, 2004 and 1980-84," GTAP Research Memoranda 2925, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. Horridge, Mark & Madden, John & Wittwer, Glyn, 2005. "The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-308, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Alan Matthews, 2014. "An updated look at the impact of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy on developing countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp454, IIIS.

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