Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries

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Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries

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Guido Fioretti () (University of Siena, Centro Sistemi Complessi)

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Guido Fioretti

Abstract

Investment decision-making is modeled by means of a Kohonen neural net, whose neurons represent firms as decision-makers. Thus, the network reconstructs collective decision-making by the productive system. This model focuses on the decision to invest in novel fields of activity, which requires that managers recognize the emergence of a new technological pattern. Recognizing the value of information is not obvious, since it depends on a firm's mental categories. For instance, in 1964 Olivetti sold its electronics division in the firm belief, well supported by a tradition of excellence in mechanics, that computers would never substitute typing machines.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 with number 07.

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Handle: RePEc:sce:cplx03:07

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Article
- Fioretti, Guido, 2006. "Recognising investment opportunities at the onset of recoveries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 69-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- Guido Fioretti, 2002. "Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries," Macroeconomics 0207008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
D29 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Other
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
L29 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Other
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General
O49 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-CBE-2003-07-21 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
NEP-CMP-2003-07-21 (Computational Economics)

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