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Learning about Others' Actions and the Investment Accelerator

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  • Acemoglu, Daron

Abstract

A General Equilibrium model of investment is constructed in which the pay-offs of firms depend on each other's actions. It is shown that when these actions are unobservable but aggregate output is in the information set of the agents; it acts as a signal. The implication is that output will lead investment over the business cycle. This gives a theory of the Rational Expectations Investment Accelerator. Learning also changes the cyclical behaviour of the endogenous variables and leads to a loss of output and efficiency. The inefficiency depends on the amount of noise in the system thus reducing fluctuations can have first-order welfare effects. It is also shown that the introduction of a stock market will not alter the qualitative conclusion of the paper. The intuition of this paper for the investment accelerator also suggests that an "employer accelerator" might exist. An economic investigation of the US and UK data gives support to these accelerators. Also, the model predicts, investment is less responsive to output when its conditional variance is higher.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 103 (1993)
Issue (Month): 417 (March)
Pages: 318-28

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:103:y:1993:i:417:p:318-28

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Cited by:
  1. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2004. "Transparency of Information and Coordination in Economies with Investment Complementarities," NBER Working Papers 10391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rodriguez Mora, Jose V. & Schulstad, Paul, 2007. "The effect of GNP announcements on fluctuations of GNP growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1922-1940, November.
  3. José V. Rodríguez Mora, 1995. "Shared knowledge," Economics Working Papers 144, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Christopher F Baum, 2002. "Sectoral Fluctuations in U.K. Firms' Investment Expenditures," Research Papers 2002_01, University of Liverpool Management School.
  5. Guido Fioretti, 2002. "Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries," Macroeconomics 0207008, EconWPA.
  6. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Efficiency and Welfare with Complementarities and Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 11826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Blackley, Paul R., 2000. "Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 473-484.

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