IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Investors' Information Acquisition On Sell-Side Analysts Forecast Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Astaiza-Gómez, José Gabriel

Abstract

In this research I empirically study the effects of information acquisition by investors or traders on analysts' forecast bias. Based on the theoretical literature on sell-side analysts, I argue that forecast bias is correlated to investors' information gathering in two opposite directions. On the one hand, higher levels of reading activities about individual firms by investors induce analysts to issue more optimistic forecasts if the potential for trading is higher. On the other hand, higher levels of reading activities about individual firms by investors help them identify opportunistic behaviors and thus to discipline analysts. I find that investors' information acquisition is positively related to analysts' optimism when the potential for trading is larger, and negatively related to optimism when investors are more likely to identify inflated forecasts. Together, these results suggest that information acquisition is not only correlated to analysts' optimism but also that its effect does not work trivially and solely in one direction but it activates two different incentives in analysts' decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Astaiza-Gómez, José Gabriel, 2021. "The Effects of Investors' Information Acquisition On Sell-Side Analysts Forecast Bias," MPRA Paper 110059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110059/1/MPRA_paper_110059.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112072/1/MPRA_paper_112072.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Jullien & In-Uck Park, 2014. "New, Like New, or Very Good? Reputation and Credibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1543-1574.
    2. Atiase, Rk, 1985. "Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, And Security Price Behavior Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    4. Hugonnier, Julien & Morellec, Erwan, 2017. "Bank capital, liquid reserves, and insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 266-285.
    5. Daniel L. Millimet & Rusty Tchernis, 2013. "Estimation Of Treatment Effects Without An Exclusion Restriction: With An Application To The Analysis Of The School Breakfast Program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 982-1017, September.
    6. Boris Groysberg & Paul M. Healy & David A. Maber, 2011. "What Drives Sell‐Side Analyst Compensation at High‐Status Investment Banks?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 969-1000, September.
    7. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Guillermo Moloche & Stephen Weinberg, 2006. "Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1043-1068, September.
    9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    10. Unknown, 2014. "Media Coverage 2014," 2014: Ethics, Efficiency and Food Security: Feeding the 9 Billion, Well, 26-28 August 2014 225573, Crawford Fund.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Devin Shanthikumar, 2014. "Do Security Analysts Speak in Two Tongues?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1322.
    12. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
    13. Choi, Stephen J., 2000. "Regulating Investors Not Issuers: A Market Based Proposal," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt36h9c7gq, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    14. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.
    15. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    16. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2006. "Reputational cheap talk," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 155-175, March.
    17. Sandeep Dahiya & Giuliano Iannotta & Marco Navone, 2017. "Firm Opacity Lies in the Eye of the Beholder," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(3), pages 553-592, September.
    18. Rachel M. Hayes & Carolyn B. Levine, 2000. "An Approach to Adjusting Analysts' Consensus Forecasts for Selection Bias," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 61-83, March.
    19. Jin Woo Chang & Hae Mi Choi, 2017. "Analyst Optimism and Incentives under Market Uncertainty," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 307-345, August.
    20. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    21. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    22. Kaniel, Ron & Parham, Robert, 2017. "WSJ Category Kings – The impact of media attention on consumer and mutual fund investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 337-356.
    23. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2015. "Would you Pay for Transparently Useless Advice? A Test of Boundaries of Beliefs in The Folly of Predictions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 257-272, May.
    24. Azi Ben-Rephael & Zhi Da & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2017. "It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3009-3047.
    25. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    26. Alexander Hillert & Heiko Jacobs & Sebastian Müller, 2014. "Media Makes Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3467-3501.
    27. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1177-1217, November.
    28. Gunther, Jeffery W. & Moore, Robert R., 2003. "Loss underreporting and the auditing role of bank exams," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 153-177, April.
    29. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    30. Zhi Da & Keejae P. Hong & Sangwoo Lee, 2016. "What Drives Target Price Forecasts and Their Investment Value?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3-4), pages 487-510, March.
    31. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    32. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2009. "The Effectiveness of Reputation as a Disciplinary Mechanism in Sell-Side Research," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3735-3777, September.
    33. Abarbanell, Jeffery & Lehavy, Reuven, 2003. "Biased forecasts or biased earnings? The role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over/underreaction in analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 105-146, December.
    34. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    35. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    36. Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu, 2013. "Analyst Forecast Consistency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 271-297, February.
    37. Ekkehart Boehmer & Eric K. Kelley, 2009. "Institutional Investors and the Informational Efficiency of Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3563-3594, September.
    38. Hugon, Artur & Muslu, Volkan, 2010. "Market demand for conservative analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 42-57, May.
    39. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    40. Niehaus, Greg & Zhang, Donghang, 2010. "The impact of sell-side analyst research coverage on an affiliated broker's market share of trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 776-787, April.
    41. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
    42. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    43. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    44. Hayes, RM, 1998. "The impact of trading commission incentives on analysts' stock coverage decisions and earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 299-320.
    45. Joseph E. Engelberg & Christopher A. Parsons, 2011. "The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 67-97, February.
    46. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    47. Simone Galperti, 2019. "Persuasion: The Art of Changing Worldviews," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 996-1031, March.
    48. Lipman, Barton L, 1991. "How to Decide How to Decide How to. . . : Modeling Limited Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1105-1125, July.
    49. Somnath Das & Re‐Jin Guo & Huai Zhang, 2006. "Analysts' Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1159-1185, June.
    50. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Beverly Hirtle & David O. Lucca, 2016. "Parsing the content of bank supervision," Staff Reports 770, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    51. Easley, David, et al, 1996. "Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-1436, September.
    52. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    53. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    54. Kartik, Navin & Ottaviani, Marco & Squintani, Francesco, 2007. "Credulity, lies, and costly talk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 93-116, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Chatalova, Natalia & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2016. "Analyst coverage and IPO management forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 263-277.
    4. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Jin, Han & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang & Xu, Bin, 2023. "Can star analysts make superior coverage decisions in poor information environment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    7. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    8. Sanjay W. Bissessur & David Veenman, 2016. "Analyst information precision and small earnings surprises," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1327-1360, December.
    9. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    10. Marco Navone & Fernando Zapatero, 2014. "Why Do Financial Analysts Strive to Be Irrelevant? Career Concerns and Endogenous Coverage Termination," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1507, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Yezegel, Ari, 2015. "Why do analysts revise their stock recommendations after earnings announcements?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 163-181.
    12. Chune Young Chung & Euisup Lee & Chang-Gyun Park, 2020. "Do Ownership Ties Increase the Optimistic Bias of Analysts’ Earnings Estimates? Evidence from Corporate Financing in the Korean Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. K. C. Kenneth Chu & W. H. Sophia Zhai, 2021. "Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 429-460, August.
    15. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    16. Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
    17. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    19. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    20. Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trading incentives; analyst's credibility; responsive investors; naive investors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.