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Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?

Author

Listed:
  • Mei-Chen Lin

    (National Taipei University)

  • J. Jimmy Yang

    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

This study examines the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that analysts are more optimistic for lottery firms. Compensation incentives and access to private information from management are key drivers for analysts’ optimistic forecasts. The optimism of earnings forecast for lottery stocks decreases with analysts’ general and firm-specific experience. Our findings suggest that both behavioral biases and rational incentives help explain analysts’ optimism toward lottery stocks. Moreover, investor sentiment positively affects the effect of lottery characteristics on analyst optimism. Firm-specific risk and market uncertainty enhance the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecast bias. The level of optimism on lottery stocks increases during up markets and economic expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:61:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-023-01176-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-023-01176-x
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