This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Deaves, Richard
Lüders, Erick
Schröder, Michael
Abstract

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What?s more, more experienced forecasters have ?learned to be overconfident,? and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high. --

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24179/1/dp0583.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 05-83.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4566

Contact details of provider:
Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim
Phone: +49/621/1235-01
Fax: +49/621/1235-224
Email:
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ZBW - German National Library for Economics).

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    Other versions:
  4. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2005. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-07, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2009. "Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-428, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 0712, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2008. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-392, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are NEP reports in over 80 fields that deliver new research to your email.

This page was last updated on 2010-1-4.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.