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Demographic Factors and Real House Prices

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  • Richard K. Green
  • Patric H. Hendershott

Abstract

Real house prices are directly determined by the willingness of households to pay for (and willingness of builders to supply) a constant-quality house. Changes in the quantity of housing demanded will affect real prices only to the extent that the long-run housing supply schedule is positively sloped. In this paper we use 1980 census data to measure the impact of the age structure and real income per household on the willingness of households to pay for a constant quality house. Extrapolating these variables forward to 2010, we conclude that evolving demographic forces are likely to raise real house prices. not lower them.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4332.

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Date of creation: Apr 1993
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Publication status: published as "Age, Housing Demand and Real House Prices), Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 26 (1996): 465-480.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4332

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  1. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  2. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
  3. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 91-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. James N. Brown & Harvey S. Rosen, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "The Estimation of Demand Parameters in Hedonic Price Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 81-88, February.
  7. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-83, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Ohtake, F. & Shintani, M., 1995. "The Effects of Demographics on the Japanese Housing Market," ISER Discussion Paper, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University 0391, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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