Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?
AbstractMankiw and Weil have estimated a demographically-driven real house price equation on annual data from the 1947-87 period and used it to forecast real house prices over the 1988-2007 period. The result is their infamous 47 percent real decline. Their equation really only fits data from the 1950s and 1960s. Not only is the post 1970 fit poor, but the cumulative in-sample forecast for the 1970-87 period is off by a factor of four. While real house prices seem more likely to decline than increase over the next two decades, the most likely decline is 10 to 15 percent, not 47 percent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3880.
Date of creation: Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1989. "Dynamic aspects of consumer decisions in housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 212-230, September.
- Haurin, Donald R. & Lee, Kyubang, 1989. "A structural model of the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 348-360, November.
- A Börsch-Supan & A Brugiavini, 2001.
"Savings: the policy debate in Europe,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 116-143, Spring.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Brugiavini, Agar, 2000. "Savings: The Policy Debate in Europe," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Agar Brugiavini, 2002. "Savings: The Policy Debate in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 02018, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Kiyohiko Nishimura & Elod Takáts, 2012. "Ageing, property prices and money demand," BIS Working Papers 385, Bank for International Settlements.
- Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996.
"The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
- Ohtake, F. & Shintani, M., 1995. "The Effects of Demographics on the Japanese Housing Market," ISER Discussion Paper 0391, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2006. "Demographic Change, Saving and Asset Prices: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September.
- Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
- Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Marsha J. Courchane & Judith A. Giles, 2002. "A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets," Econometrics Working Papers 0201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Roehner, Bertrand M., 1999. "Spatial analysis of real estate price bubbles: Paris, 1984-1993," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-88, January.
- Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
- Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Mika Kuismanen & Seppo Laakso & Heikki A. Loikkanen, 1999. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area," Discussion Papers 191, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.