This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Patric H. Hendershott
Abstract

Mankiw and Weil have estimated a demographically-driven real house price equation on annual data from the 1947-87 period and used it to forecast real house prices over the 1988-2007 period. The result is their infamous 47 percent real decline. Their equation really only fits data from the 1950s and 1960s. Not only is the post 1970 fit poor, but the cumulative in-sample forecast for the 1970-87 period is off by a factor of four. While real house prices seem more likely to decline than increase over the next two decades, the most likely decline is 10 to 15 percent, not 47 percent.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3880.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3880.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3880

Note: ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Haurin, Donald R. & Lee, Kyubang, 1989. "A structural model of the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 348-360, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1989. "Dynamic aspects of consumer decisions in housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 212-230, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mika Kuismanen & Seppo Laakso & Heikki A. Loikkanen, 1999. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area," Discussion Papers 191, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  3. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2006. "Demographic Change, Saving and Asset Prices: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Agar Brugiavini, 2002. "Savings: The Policy Debate in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 02018, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marsha J. Courchane & Judith A. Giles, 2002. "A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets," Econometrics Working Papers 0201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  6. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2010-1-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.