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The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices

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  • Joe Peek
  • James A. Wilcox
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Abstract

We assess the conceptual and empirical features of a number of house price series for the United States. We then calculate a measure of the net upgrading of the existing stock of houses that took place during the 1950-1989 period and adjust price indexes for this net increase in quality. Judgments about the trend, volatility, and determinants of house prices are shown to depend crucially on which price series is used. The Freddie Mac upgrade adjusted house price measure rose 5.7% over the past four decades, falling 7.7% from 1950 through 1970 before rising 14.5% from 1970 through 1989. Real house prices declined in the early 1980s as a result of the increase in real after-tax interest rates and the decline in real materials costs. The recovery of house prices in the late 1980s is attributed to lower unemployment and real after-tax interest rates and particularly to demographic factors associated with the aging of baby boomers.

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File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp1991/wp91_7.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 91-7.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Publication status: Published in AREUEA 19, no. 3 (Fall 1991): 353-82.
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:91-7

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Keywords: Housing;

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References

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  1. James M. Poterba, 1990. "Taxation and Housing Markets: Preliminary Evidence on the Effects of Recent Tax Reforms," NBER Working Papers 3270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402.
  4. Palmquist, Raymond B, 1980. "Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 442-48, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott, 1993. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," Working Paper 9100, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  2. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1996. "Can studies of application denials and mortgage defaults uncover taste-based discrimination?," Working Papers 96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Marschoun, Michael, 2000. "Availability of Mortgage Loans in Volatile Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 443-469, May.
  5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Working Paper Series 1178, European Central Bank.
  6. Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott & Dongwook Kim, 1991. "Local House Price Indexes: 1982-1991," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 451-472.
  7. Marvin L. Wolverton & Jimmy Senteza, 2000. "Hedonic Estimates of Regional Constant Quality House Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 235-253.
  8. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
  9. Earl D. Benson & Julia L. Hansen & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr. & Gregory T. Smersh, 1997. "The Influence of Canadian Investment on U.S. Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250.
  10. Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, . "A Look at Real Housing Prices and Incomes: Some Implications for Housing Affordability and Quality," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 324, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Fuad Hasanov & Douglas Dacy, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Returns on Aggregate Residential Housing," Finance 0510005, EconWPA.
  12. Chugunov, D., 2013. "Impact of School Quality and Neighborhoods on Housing Prices in Moscow," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 87-112.
  13. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
  14. Earl Benson & Julia Hansen & Arthur Schwartz & Greg Smersh, 1999. "Canadian / U.S. Exchange Rates and Nonresident Investors: Their Influence on Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 433-462.
  15. Donald Haurin & David Brasington, 1996. "The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices: Interjurisdictional Effects," Working Papers 010, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  16. Abdul Aziz, Ahmad Faizal, 2011. "Causality of Residential Properties Price Movements in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 47682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
  18. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.

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