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The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices

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  • Joe Peek
  • James A. Wilcox
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Abstract

We assess the conceptual and empirical features of a number of house price series for the United States. We then calculate a measure of the net upgrading of the existing stock of houses that took place during the 1950-1989 period and adjust price indexes for this net increase in quality. Judgments about the trend, volatility, and determinants of house prices are shown to depend crucially on which price series is used. The Freddie Mac upgrade adjusted house price measure rose 5.7% over the past four decades, falling 7.7% from 1950 through 1970 before rising 14.5% from 1970 through 1989. Real house prices declined in the early 1980s as a result of the increase in real after-tax interest rates and the decline in real materials costs. The recovery of house prices in the late 1980s is attributed to lower unemployment and real after-tax interest rates and particularly to demographic factors associated with the aging of baby boomers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 91-7.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Publication status: Published in AREUEA 19, no. 3 (Fall 1991): 353-82.
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:91-7

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Keywords: Housing;

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References

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  1. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402.
  2. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
  2. Fuad Hasanov & Douglas Dacy, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Returns on Aggregate Residential Housing," Finance 0510005, EconWPA.
  3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1996. "Can studies of application denials and mortgage defaults uncover taste-based discrimination?," Working Papers 96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Donald Haurin & David Brasington, 1996. "The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices: Interjurisdictional Effects," Working Papers 010, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Earl D. Benson & Julia L. Hansen & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr. & Gregory T. Smersh, 1997. "The Influence of Canadian Investment on U.S. Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250.
  7. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
  8. Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott & Dongwook Kim, 1991. "Local House Price Indexes: 1982-1991," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 451-472.
  9. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
  10. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott, 1993. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," NBER Working Papers 4332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
  13. Earl Benson & Julia Hansen & Arthur Schwartz & Greg Smersh, 1999. "Canadian / U.S. Exchange Rates and Nonresident Investors: Their Influence on Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 433-462.
  14. Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, . "A Look at Real Housing Prices and Incomes: Some Implications for Housing Affordability and Quality," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 324, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  15. Marschoun, Michael, 2000. "Availability of Mortgage Loans in Volatile Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 443-469, May.
  16. Marvin L. Wolverton & Jimmy Senteza, 2000. "Hedonic Estimates of Regional Constant Quality House Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 235-253.

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