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Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model

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  • Ferre De Graeve

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Maarten Dossche

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Marina Emiris

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Henri Sneessens

    (Catholic University of Louvain-La-Neuve)

  • Raf Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

We analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents - shareholders, bondholders and workers - that differ in participation in the capital market and in terms of risk aversion. Aggregate productivity and distribution risk are shared among these agents via the bond market and via an efficient labor contract. The result is a combination of volatile returns to capital and a highly cyclical consumption process for the shareholders, which are two important ingredients for generating high and countercyclical risk premiums. These risk premiums are consistent with a strong propagation mechanism through an elastic supply of labor, rigid real wages and a countercyclical labor share. We discuss the implications for the real and nominal component of the risk premium on equity and bonds. We show how these premiums react to changes in the volatility of the shocks, as experienced during the great moderation. We also analyze the effects of changes in monetary policy behavior and the resulting inflation dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 150.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-25

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Cited by:
  1. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2012. "Income inequality and macroeconomic stability in a New Keynesian model with limited asset market participation," Working Papers 219, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.
  2. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
  3. Borenstein, Eliezer & Elkayam, David, 2013. "The equity premium in a small open economy, and an application to Israel," MPRA Paper 43909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Achury, Carolina & Hubar, Sylwia & Koulovatianos, Christos, 2011. "Saving rates and portfolio choice with subsistence consumption," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  6. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk Premiums and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Paper Series 236, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  7. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "The Equity Premium in a DSGE Model with Limited Asset Market Participation," Working Papers 275, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
  8. Carolina Achury & Sylwia Hubar & Christos Koulovatianos, 2011. "Online Appendix to "Saving Rates and Portfolio Choice with Subsistence Consumption"," Technical Appendices 10-11, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  9. Hans Dewachter & Raf Wouters, 2012. "Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries," Working Paper Research 235, National Bank of Belgium.

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