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Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy

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  • Christoffel, Kai
  • Jaccard, Ivan
  • Kilponen, Juha

Abstract

We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia. JEL Classification: E5, E6, G1

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1411.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111411

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Keywords: bond risk premium; DSGE Models; Fiscal Policy; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Eric M. Leeper, Michael Plante, Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics Of Fiscal Financing In The United States," Caepr Working Papers 2009-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  2. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
  3. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Ivan Jaccard, 2007. "Asset Pricing, Habit Memory, and the Labor Market," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-23, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Nov 2007.
  5. Vasco Curdia & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," Discussion Papers 0910-12, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  8. Ascari, Guido & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 126-131, February.
  9. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  10. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
  11. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  12. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
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Cited by:
  1. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
  2. Florina-Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2013. "Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE model," Working Papers hal-00996622, HAL.

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