Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy
AbstractWe introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia. JEL Classification: E5, E6, G1.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1411.
Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-01-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2012-01-03 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2012-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-UPT-2012-01-03 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
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