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Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model

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  • De Graeve, Ferre
  • Dossche, Maarten
  • Emiris, Marina
  • Sneessens, Henri
  • Wouters, Raf

Abstract

We analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents--shareholders, bondholders and workers--that differ in participation in the capital market and in attitude towards risk and intertemporal substitution. Aggregate productivity and distribution risks are transferred across these agents via the bond market and via an efficient labor contract. The result is a combination of volatile returns to capital and a highly cyclical consumption process for the shareholders, which are two important ingredients for generating high and countercyclical risk premiums. These risk premiums are consistent with a strong propagation mechanism through an elastic supply of labor, rigid real wages and a countercyclical labor share. Based on the empirical estimates for the two sources of real macroeconomic risk, the model generates significant and plausible time variation in both bond and equity risk premiums. Interestingly, the single largest jump in both the risk premium and the price of risk is observed during the current recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1680-1699

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:9:p:1680-1699

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Equity Premium Bond Premium Limited participation DSGE;

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Cited by:
  1. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1680-1699, September.
  2. Carolina Achury & Sylwia Hubar & Christos Koulovatianos, 2011. "Online Appendix to "Saving Rates and Portfolio Choice with Subsistence Consumption"," Technical Appendices 10-11, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  3. Borenstein, Eliezer & Elkayam, David, 2013. "The equity premium in a small open economy, and an application to Israel," MPRA Paper 43909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Dewachter, Hans & Wouters, Raf, 2014. "Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 241-268.
  5. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
  6. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  7. Carolina Achury & Sylwia Hubar & Christos Koulovatianos, . "Saving Rates and Portfolio Choice with Subsistence Consumption," Discussion Papers 10/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  8. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2012. "Income inequality and macroeconomic stability in a New Keynesian model with limited asset market participation," Working Papers 219, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.

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