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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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Author Info
Charles Bellemare

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Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic model of outmigration which incorporate several features of existing outmigration theories but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations can be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment, and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

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Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0430.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0430

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Related research
Keywords: Outmigration Structural dynamic programming models

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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  1. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and estimation of economic models of outmigration using panel attrition," Discussion Paper 28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Edin, Per-Anders & LaLonde, Robert J. & Åslund, Olof, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wei-Yin Hu, 2000. "Immigrant Earnings Assimilation: Estimates from Longitudinal Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 368-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosensweig & James P. Smith, 2003. "The Earnings of US immigrants," Labor and Demography 0312007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Darren Lubotsky, 2000. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Working Papers 824, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  7. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1995. "Tackling the European Migration Problems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 45-62, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dustmann, Christian, 1994. "Return Intentions of Migrants: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. repec:fth:prinin:445 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Cohen, Sarit & Eckstein, Zvi, 2002. "Labor Mobility of Immigrants: Training, Experience, Language and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pessino, Carola, 1991. "Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Charles Bellemare, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of the Economic Performance of Outmigrants using Panel Attrition," Cahiers de recherche 0429, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  18. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. William A. V. Clark & Anita I. Drever, 2001. "Do Immigrants Improve Their Housing Quality When They Move? : Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 87-94. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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