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Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

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  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive self-selection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 128.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:128

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Keywords: Emigration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized Additive Mixed Models; Penalized Splines;

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  1. Nekby, Lena, 2004. "The Emigration of Immigrants, Return vs. Onward Migration: Evidence from Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2004:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  2. Arin, K. Peren & Berlemann, Michael & Koray, Faik & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2011. "The taxation-growth-nexus revisited," HWWI Research Papers 104, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  3. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, October.
  4. Bellemare, C., 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Discussion Paper 2004-29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114.
  6. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  7. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
  8. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  9. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  10. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
  11. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
  12. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, October.
  13. Burda, Michael C. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Müller, Marlene & Werwatz, Axel, 1997. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  14. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  15. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP): Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  16. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
  17. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Hillmann, Katja & Hohenleitner, Ingrid, 2012. "Impact of benefit sanctions on unemployment outflow: Evidence from German survey data," HWWI Research Papers 129, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Jahn, Elke & Hirsch, Boris & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does better pre-migration performance accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79833, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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