IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hwwirp/128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive self-selection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," HWWI Research Papers 128, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/59598/1/719025737.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    3. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    4. Joachim R. Frick & Jan Goebel (Eds.), 2011. "Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP, v27, 1984-2010)," Data Documentation 61, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
    6. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Kauermann, Goran, 2005. "Penalized spline smoothing in multivariable survival models with varying coefficients," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 169-186, April.
    8. Bellemare, Charles, 2007. "A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 553-576, April.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    10. Christian Dustmann, 1999. "Temporary Migration, Human Capital, and Language Fluency of Migrants," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 297-314, June.
    11. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, October.
    12. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    13. M. P. Wand, 2003. "Smoothing and mixed models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 223-249, July.
    14. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
    15. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114, February.
    16. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
    17. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, September.
    18. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, October.
    19. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    20. Arin, K. Peren & Berlemann, Michael & Koray, Faik & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2011. "The taxation-growth-nexus revisited," HWWI Research Papers 104, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    21. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    2. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Constant, Amelie F., 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 446, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Eric Schuss, 2020. "Substantial Labor Market Effects of the Residency Status," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 993-1026, December.
    5. Berbée, Paul & Stuhler, Jan, 2023. "The integration of migrants in the German labor market: Evidence over 50 years," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Giulia Bettin & Eralba Cela & Tineke Fokkema, 2018. "Return intentions over the life course: Evidence on the effects of life events from a longitudinal sample of first- and second-generation Turkish migrants in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(38), pages 1009-1038.
    7. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    8. Steinhardt, Max F., 2018. "The Impact of Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Claudia Diehl & Elisabeth Liebau, 2014. "Turning Back to Turkey - or Turning the Back to Germany?: Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 637, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajić, Slobodan & Kırdar, Murat G., 2021. "Purchasing-power-parity and the saving behavior of temporary migrants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2014. "Do better pre-migration skills accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-222.
    15. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does Better Pre-Migration Performance Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?," IZA Discussion Papers 7240, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Juan Galeano & Aurélie Pont & Philippe Wanner, 2022. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Naturalization and International Migration in Switzerland, 2011–2017," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 889-910, June.
    19. Diehl, Claudia & Liebau, Elisabeth, 2015. "Turning back to Turkey - or Turning the Back on Germany? Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 22-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    2. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    4. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    6. Els Bekaert & Amelie F. Constant & Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2021. "Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1028, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Steinar Strøm & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 2013. "Wage assimilation: migrants versus natives and foreign migrants versus internal migrants," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/30, European University Institute.
    8. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    9. Govert E. Bijwaard, 2008. "Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-070/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    11. Rémi BAZILLIER & Francesco MAGRIS & Daniel MIRZA, 2016. "Out-Migration and Economic Cycles," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2314, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. Ismael Issifou & Francesco Magris, 2017. "Migration outflows and optimal migration policy: rules versus discretion," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(2), pages 87-112, August.
    13. Izquierdo, Mario & Lacuesta, Aitor & Vegas, Raquel, 2009. "Assimilation of immigrants in Spain: A longitudinal analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 669-678, December.
    14. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
    15. Smith, Michael S. & Kauermann, Göran, 2011. "Bicycle commuting in Melbourne during the 2000s energy crisis: A semiparametric analysis of intraday volumes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1846-1862.
    16. Faini, Riccardo & Strom, Steinar & Venturini, Alessandra & Villosio, Claudia, 2009. "Are Foreign Migrants More Assimilated Than Native Ones?," IZA Discussion Papers 4639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 39-69, February.
    18. Govert E. Bijwaard & Jackline Wahba, 2023. "Return Versus onward Migration: Go Back or Move On?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 640-667, September.
    19. Gemma Larramona, 2011. "Determinants of return migration in Spain in its new role as a receiving country," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1082, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2017. "Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 542-564, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized Additive Mixed Models; Penalized Splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hwwiide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.