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Who Leaves and When? - Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany

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  • Torben Kuhlenkasper
  • Max Friedrich Steinhardt

    ()

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive selfselection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI) in its series Discussion Papers with number 3.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cel:dpaper:3

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Keywords: Emigration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized Additive Mixed Models;

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References

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  1. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
  2. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  3. Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP): Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  5. Bellemare, C., 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Discussion Paper 2004-29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
  7. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
  8. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  9. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
  10. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114.
  11. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, April.
  12. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
  13. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
  14. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, April.
  16. Arin, K. Peren & Berlemann, Michael & Koray, Faik & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2011. "The taxation-growth-nexus revisited," HWWI Research Papers 104, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  17. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
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Cited by:
  1. Hillmann, Katja & Hohenleitner, Ingrid, 2012. "Impact of benefit sanctions on unemployment outflow: Evidence from German survey data," HWWI Research Papers 129 [rev.], Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Jahn, Elke & Hirsch, Boris & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does better pre-migration performance accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79833, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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