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Who Leaves and When?: Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany

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Author Info

  • Torben Kuhlenkasper
  • Max Friedrich Steinhardt

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence on the outmigration of foreign-born immigrants. We make use of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and employ penalised spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalised Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. A unique feature is the use of data from dropout studies to identify outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by positive skill selection intensifying the initial negative selection process. For Non-Turkish immigrants we instead find a u-shaped pattern between human capital and outmigration. Finally, we discover substantial variation in emigration behaviour during the life-cycle.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.409030.de/diw_sp0490.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 490.

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Length: 38 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp490

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Keywords: Emigration; self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; generalised additive mixed models;

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References

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  1. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
  2. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
  3. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
  4. Edin, P.-A. & Lalonde, R.J. & Aslund, O., 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Papers, Uppsala - Working Paper Series 2000-13, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  5. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
  6. Charles Bellemare, 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Cahiers de recherche, CIRPEE 0430, CIRPEE.
  7. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
  8. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  9. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
  10. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  11. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  12. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
  13. Arin, K. Peren & Berlemann, Michael & Koray, Faik & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2011. "The taxation-growth-nexus revisited," HWWI Research Papers, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) 104, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  14. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  15. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
  16. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hillmann, Katja & Hohenleitner, Ingrid, 2012. "Impact of benefit sanctions on unemployment outflow: Evidence from German survey data," HWWI Research Papers, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) 129, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Jahn, Elke & Hirsch, Boris & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does better pre-migration performance accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association 79833, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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