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Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration Using Panel Attrition

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  • Bellemare, Charles

    ()
    (Université Laval)

Abstract

Because their departures are difficultly observed, little is known about the performance of immigrants who leave a region and move to another. This paper shows conditions under which the (conditional) outmigration probability, work probability and the expected earnings of outmigrants are nonparametrically identified using data on immigrant sample attrition. We present an econometric model which extracts the information on outmigration behavior from sample attrition and allows to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process in a very natural way, a feature not previously possible. The method presented in the paper is general enough to estimate models of internal and external migration. We apply our framework to estimate a panel data model where immigrants can choose whether to stay or leave a country. The model is estimated using the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Outmigrants are found to have significantly lower labor market earnings and work propensities than permanent migrants.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1065.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1065

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Keywords: outmigration; identification; panel data models;

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References

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  1. Edin, Per-Anders & LaLonde, Robert J. & Åslund, Olof, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, March Cit.
  3. William A. V. Clark & Anita I. Drever, 2001. "Do Immigrants Improve Their Housing Quality When They Move?: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 87-94.
  4. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
  5. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000. "Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments," Papers 0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  7. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosensweig & James P. Smith, 2003. "The Earnings of US immigrants," Labor and Demography 0312007, EconWPA.
  8. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-30, September.
  9. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
  10. Dustmann, C, 1993. "Earnings Adjustment of Temporary Migrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 153-68, May.
  11. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November.
  12. Jasso, Guillermina & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 298-304, March.
  13. Stark, Oded, 1995. " Return and Dynamics: The Path of Labor Migration When Workers Differ in Their Skills and Information Is Asymmetric," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 55-71, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Temporary migration in theories of international mobility of labour," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 42(6), pages 7-48.
  2. Mari Kangasniemi & Merja Kauhanen, 2013. "Who leaves and who stays? Outmigration of Estonian immigrants from Finland and its impact on economic assimilation of Estonian immigrants in Finland," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013001, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  3. Bellemare, Charles, 2007. "A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 553-576, April.
  4. Mari Kangasniemi & Merja Kauhanen, 2013. "Characteristics and labour market performance of the new member state (NMS12) immigrants in Finland, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013002, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.

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