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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Bellemare, Charles

    ()
    (Université Laval)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate. The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration. Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1012.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: European Economic Review, 2007, 51 (3), 553-576
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1012

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Keywords: structural dynamic programming models; outmigration;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2010. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," CSEF Working Papers 246, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Kahanec, Martin & Shields, Michael P., 2010. "The Working Hours of Immigrants in Germany: Temporary versus Permanent," IZA Discussion Papers 4735, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
  5. Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When? - Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," Discussion Papers 3, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
  6. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

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