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The dynamics of innovation and risk

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  • Biais, Bruno
  • Rochet, Jean-Charles
  • Woolley, Paul

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence becomes high, inefficient managers exerting low risk-prevention effort also enter. This stimulates growth, while reducing risk-prevention. The longer the boom, the larger the losses if a shock occurs. While these dynamics arise in the first-best, asymmetric information generates excessive entry of inefficient managers, earning informational rents, inflating the innovative sector and increasing its vulnerability.

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Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 807.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Publication status: Published in The Review of Financial Studies, 2014.
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:27747

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  1. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
  2. Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Shakeouts and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. HOLMSTROM, Bengt, . "Moral hazard and observability," CORE Discussion Papers RP -379, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
  5. Persons, John C & Warther, Vincent A, 1997. "Boom and Bust Patterns in the Adoption of Financial Innovations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 939-67.
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