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The dynamics of innovation and risk

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  • Biais, Bruno
  • Rochet, Jean-Charles
  • Woolley, Paul

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence becomes high, inefficient managers exerting low risk-prevention effort also enter. This stimulates growth, while reducing risk-prevention. The longer the boom, the larger the losses if a shock occurs. While these dynamics arise in the first-best, asymmetric information generates excessive entry of inefficient managers, earning informational rents, inflating the innovative sector and increasing its vulnerability.

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  • Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2013. "The dynamics of innovation and risk," IDEI Working Papers 807, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:27747
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    3. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Jianxing Wei & Tong Xu, 2018. "A Model of Bank Credit Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 610, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    7. Deepal Basak & Mr. Yunhui Zhao, 2018. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?," IMF Working Papers 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Enrico Perotti & Magdalena Rola-Janicka, 2022. "The Good, the Bad, and the Missed Boom," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5025-5056.

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