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Technological innovation and market turbulence: the dot-com experience

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  • Zhu Wang

Abstract

This paper explains market turbulence, such as the recent dotcom boom/bust cycle, as equilibrium industry dynamics triggered by technology innovation. When a major technology innovation arrives, a wave of new firms enter the market implementing the innovation for profits. However, if the innovation complements existing technology, some new entrants will later be forced out as more and more incumbent firms succeed in adopting the innovation. It is shown that the diffusion of Internet technology among traditional brick-and-mortar firms is indeed the driving force behind the rise and fall of dotcoms as well as the sustained growth of e-commerce. Empirical evidence from retail and banking industries supports the theoretical findings. ; Earlier title: Technology innovation and market turbulence: a dot-com example

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu Wang, 2005. "Technological innovation and market turbulence: the dot-com experience," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpw:psrwp05-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    2. Richard J. Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2020. "Technology Diffusion: The Case of Internet Banking," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 19-40.
    3. König, Michael D. & Rogers, Tim, 2023. "Endogenous technology cycles in dynamic R&D networks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Fumiko Hayashi & Bin Grace Li & Zhu Wang, 2017. "Innovation, Deregulation, and the Life Cycle of a Financial Service Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 180-203, October.
    5. Agnieszka Kuś & Agnieszka Kuś, 2023. "Photovoltaic Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange—Another Speculative Bubble or a Sign of the Times?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Fafaliou, Irene & Giaka, Maria & Konstantios, Dimitrios & Polemis, Michael, 2022. "Firms’ ESG reputational risk and market longevity: A firm-level analysis for the United States," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-177.
    7. Richard J. Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2005. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Sicheng He, 2021. "Growth, innovation, credit constraints, and stock price bubbles," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 239-269, August.
    9. Fumiko Hayashi & Zhu Wang, 2008. "Product innovation and network survival in the U.S. ATM and debit card network industry," Research Working Paper RWP 08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Zhu Wang & Fumiko Hayashi, 2011. "Product Innovation and Network Survival in the U.S. ATM and Debit Card Industry," 2011 Meeting Papers 725, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
    12. Patel, Pankaj C. & Pearce, John A. & Oghazi, Pejvak, 2021. "Not so myopic: Investors lowering short-term growth expectations under high industry ESG-sales-related dynamism and predictability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 551-563.
    13. Anna Wziątek-Kubiak & Marek Pęczkowski, 2021. "Strengthening the Innovation Resilience of Polish Manufacturing Firms in Unstable Environments," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 716-739, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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