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Technological innovation and market turbulence: the dot-com experience

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  • Zhu Wang
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Abstract

This paper explains market turbulence, such as the recent dotcom boom/bust cycle, as equilibrium industry dynamics triggered by technology innovation. When a major technology innovation arrives, a wave of new firms enter the market implementing the innovation for profits. However, if the innovation complements existing technology, some new entrants will later be forced out as more and more incumbent firms succeed in adopting the innovation. It is shown that the diffusion of Internet technology among traditional brick-and-mortar firms is indeed the driving force behind the rise and fall of dotcoms as well as the sustained growth of e-commerce. Empirical evidence from retail and banking industries supports the theoretical findings. ; Earlier title: Technology innovation and market turbulence: a dot-com example

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Payments System Research Working Paper with number PSR WP 05-02.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Dynamics, Jan. 2007, v.10, no. 1 (pp 78-105)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpw:psrwp05-02

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Keywords: Technology;

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  1. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "Was There A Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Richard Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2013. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Working Paper 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  3. Paul Gompers & Anna Kovner & Josh Lerner & David Scharfstein, 2005. "Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets," NBER Working Papers 11385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April.
  5. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
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  7. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
  8. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," NBER Working Papers 10771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Zhu Wang, 2006. "Learning, diffusion and the industry life cycle," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 04-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
  11. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July.
  12. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
  13. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  14. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.
  15. Senn, James A., 2000. "Electronic Commerce Beyond the "dot com" Boom," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 373-84, September.
  16. Robert DeYoung, 2005. "The Performance of Internet-Based Business Models: Evidence from the Banking Industry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 893-948, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Fumiko Hayashi & Zhu Wang, 2009. "Product innovation and network survival in the U.S. ATM and debit card network industry," Research Working Paper RWP 08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
  3. Zhu Wang & Fumiko Hayashi, 2011. "Product Innovation and Network Survival in the U.S. ATM and Debit Card Industry," 2011 Meeting Papers 725, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Richard Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2013. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Working Paper 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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