IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/10771.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pre-Producers

Author

Listed:
  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

Until its sales of a product materialize, a firm is a "pre-producer" in the market for that product. That firm may may be a new start-up, or it may already sell other products. Firms that do not succeed in generating sales eventually become discouraged and move on to other activities. When this fate befalls a lot of firms, as it recently did in several IT-related businesses, the industry experiences a "shakeout." In the model that I will present, during the shakeout some firms switch to flatter, safer earnings. This switch raises earnings at the time of the shakeout but lowers them in the long run, and it therefore raises earnings-price ratios. This has happened on the Nasdaq since March, 2000 when the Nasdaq shakeout began.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," NBER Working Papers 10771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10771
    Note: EFG PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10771.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1988. "Anonymous sequential games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 77-87, February.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001. "Why Wait? A Century of Life before IPO," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 336-341, May.
    3. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-347, April.
    4. Michael Gort, 1962. "Diversification and Integration in American Industry," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gort62-1, March.
    5. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Strömberg, 2003. "Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 281-315.
    6. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    7. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    8. Pakes, Ariel & Schankerman, Mark A., 1978. "The Rate of Obsolescence of Knowledge, Research Gestation Labs, and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources," Working Papers 78-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    9. Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 318-345, April.
    10. David Dranove & David Meltzer, 1994. "Do Important Drugs Reach the Market Sooner?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 402-423, Autumn.
    11. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984. "The Rate of Obsolescence of Patents, Research Gestation Lags, and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 73-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    13. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, August.
    14. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    15. Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2000. "The Facts About Time: To-Build," IMF Working Papers 2000/138, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March.
    2. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plehn-Dujowich, Jose M., 2009. "Entry and exit by new versus existing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 214-222, March.
    2. Emmanuelle Fortune-Devlaminckx & Josef Haunschmied, 2010. "Diversity of firm’s life cycle adapted from the firm’s technology investment decision," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 477-489, December.
    3. John Sutton, 1996. "Gibrats Legacy," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 14, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
    6. Maria Minniti & Martin Andersson & Pontus Braunerhjelm & Frédéric Delmar & Annika Rickne & Karin Thorburn & Karl Wennberg & Mikael Stenkula, 2019. "Boyan Jovanovic: recipient of the 2019 Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 547-553, October.
    7. Thomas Philippon & Yuliy Sannikov, 2007. "Real Options in a Dynamic Agency Model, with Applications to Financial Development, IPOs, and Business Risk," NBER Working Papers 13584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mariana Mazzucato & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2005. "Innovation and Idiosyncratic Risk," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 81, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Mihir Desai & Paul Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2003. "Institutions, Capital Constraints and Entrepreneurial Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Europe," NBER Working Papers 10165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2711-2805 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mariana Mazzucato, 2006. "Innovation and Stock Prices: a Review of some Recent Work," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 159-179.
    12. Renáta Kosová & Francine Lafontaine, 2010. "Survival And Growth In Retail And Service Industries: Evidence From Franchised Chains," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 542-578, September.
    13. Helena Persson, 2004. "The Survival and Growth of New Establishments in Sweden, 1987-1995," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 423-440, October.
    14. Symeonidis, George, 2001. "Price Competition, Innovation and Profitability: Theory and UK Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis & Sahizer Samuk, 2020. "State business relations and the dynamics of job flows in Egypt and Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 519-558, December.
    16. Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Rosina Moreno, 2005. "Firm Competitive Strategies And The Likelihood Of Survival - The Spanish Case," ERSA conference papers ersa05p347, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Alex Coad, 2018. "Firm age: a survey," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 13-43, January.
    18. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1988_026 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Boyan Jovanovic, 1993. "The Diversification of Production," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1 Microec), pages 197-247.
    21. Takehiko Yasuda, 2005. "Firm Growth, Size, Age and Behavior in Japanese Manufacturing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-15, December.
    22. Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Michael Gort's Contribution to Economics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 327-337, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.