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Shakeouts And Market Crashes

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Author Info
Alessandro Barbarino
Boyan Jovanovic

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Abstract

This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock-price run-ups and crashes. We use a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand. As an illustration, for the period 1971-2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00432.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 385-420
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:2:p:385-420

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Zeira, Joseph, 1999. "Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2005. "The diffusion of electronic business in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 11-34. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julien Prat, 2005. "Increasing optimism and demand uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 12(10), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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