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Shakeouts and Market Crashes

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Author Info
Alessandro Barbarino
Boyan Jovanovic

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Abstract

Stock-market crashes tend to follow run-ups in prices. These episodes look like bubbles that gradually inflate and then suddenly burst. We show that such bubbles can form in a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Two conditions are sufficient for this to happen: A declining hazard rate in the prior distribution over market size and a positively sloped supply of capital to the industry. For the period 1971-2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10556.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10556

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G0 - Financial Economics - - General
L0 - Industrial Organization - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Zeira, Joseph, 1999. "Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2004. "The diffusion of electronic business in the U.S," Working Papers 2004-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Geng Li, 2006. "Learning by investing--embodied technology and business cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrew Burke & André van Stel, 2009. "The Entrepreneurial Adjustment Process in Disequilibrium," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-005/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Oscar Gutierrez Arnaiz & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2003. "Entry Patterns over the Product Life Cycle," Discussion Papers 1380, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Oscar Gutierrez Arnaiz & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2003. "Real Options with Unknown-Date Events," Discussion Papers 1378, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2005. "The diffusion of electronic business in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 11-34. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julien Prat, 2005. "Increasing optimism and demand uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 12(10), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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