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Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests

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  • Boris Podobnik
  • Davor Horvatic
  • Alexander M. Petersen
  • Branko Uro\v{s}evi\'c
  • H. Eugene Stanley
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    Abstract

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor-the debt-to-asset ratio R-in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes's theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees-although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1011.2670.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2010
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    Publication status: Published in PNAS October 26, 2010 vol. 107 no. 43 18325-18330
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1011.2670

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    1. Hideaki Aoyama & Yuichi Nagahara & Mitsuhiro P. Okazaki & Wataru Souma & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2000. "Pareto's Law for Income of Individuals and Debt of Bankrupt Companies," Papers cond-mat/0006038, arXiv.org.
    2. Fu, Dongfeng & Pammolli, Fabio & Buldyrev, Sergey V. & Riccaboni, Massimo & Matia, Kaushik & Yamasaki, Kazuko & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2005. "The Growth of Business Firms: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 15905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2012. "Effects of the turnover rate on the size distribution of firms: An application of the kinetic exchange models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6039-6050.
    2. Anindya S. Chakrabarti, 2013. "Bimodality in the firm size distributions: a kinetic exchange model approach," Papers 1302.3818, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    3. Einar Erlingsson & Simone Alfarano & Marco Raberto & Hlynur Stefánsson, 2013. "On the distributional properties of size, profit and growth of Icelandic firms," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 57-74, April.
    4. Cristescu, Constantin P. & Stan, Cristina & Scarlat, Eugen I. & Minea, Teofil & Cristescu, Cristina M., 2012. "Parameter motivated mutual correlation analysis: Application to the study of currency exchange rates based on intermittency parameter and Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2623-2635.
    5. Chen, Yanguang & Wang, Jiejing, 2014. "Recursive subdivision of urban space and Zipf’s law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 392-404.
    6. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2012. "Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3751-3769.
    7. Giulio Bottazzi & Davide Pirino & Federico Tamagni, 2013. "Zipf Law and the Firm Size Distribution: a critical discussion of popular estimators," LEM Papers Series 2013/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Gramatica, Ruggero & Aste, Tomaso, 2012. "Dynamical generalized Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3180-3189.
    9. Wu, Yajing & Guo, Jinzhong & Chen, Qinghua & Wang, Yougui, 2011. "Socioeconomic implications of donation distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4325-4331.
    10. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.
    11. Hu, Lunchao & Tian, Kailan & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Jiang, 2012. "The “S” curve relationship between export diversity and economic size of countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 731-739.
    12. Lee, Sangwook & Kim, Min Jae & Lee, Sun Young & Kim, Soo Yong & Ban, Joon Hwa, 2013. "The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2060-2071.
    13. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "The mathematical relationship between Zipf’s law and the hierarchical scaling law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3285-3299.
    14. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "The rank-size scaling law and entropy-maximizing principle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 767-778.

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