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Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience

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Author Info
Zhu Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

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Abstract

This paper explains market turbulence, such as the recent dot-com boom/bust cycle, as equilibrium industry dynamics driven by the synergy between new and existing technologies. When a major technological innovation arrives, a wave of new firms implement the innovation and enter the market. However, if the innovation complements existing technology, some new entrants later will be forced out as more and more incumbent firms succeed in adopting the innovation. It is argued that the diffusion of internet technology among traditional brick-and-mortar firms was indeed the driving force behind the rise and fall of dot-coms as well as the sustained growth of e-commerce. Systematic empirical evidence from retail and banking industries supports the theoretical findings. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2006.10.001
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 78-105
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:06-47

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Related research
Keywords: Technology diffusion; Industry dynamics; Shakeout;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," 2004 Meeting Papers 91, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Richard J. Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2005. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert DeYoung, 2005. "The Performance of Internet-Based Business Models: Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 893-948, May. [Downloadable!]
  8. Zeira, Joseph, 1999. "Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stephen F. LeRoy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?," NBER Working Papers 10581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard J. Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2005. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fumiko Hayashi & Zhu Wang, 2008. "Product innovation and firm survival in a network industry," Research Working Paper RWP 08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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