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Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?

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Author Info

  • Bems, Rudolfs

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Jönsson Hartelius, Kristian

    ()
    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

Since their opening up to international capital markets, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced large and persistent capital inflows and trade deficits. This paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2004 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. The model indicates that trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 0543.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 05 Aug 2003
Date of revision: 05 Aug 2003
Publication status: Forthcoming in Review of Economic Dynamics.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0543

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Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
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Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
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Keywords: Baltic states; international factor movements; non-traded goods; adjustment costs; dynamic general equilibrium;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Olivier CARDI & Romain RESTOUT, 2013. "Imperfect Mobility of Labor across Sectors: a Reappraisal of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2013002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Péter Benczúr & István Kónya, 2007. "Convergence, capital accumulation and the nominal exchange rate," MNB Working Papers 2007/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Eric Fesselmeyer & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2012. "Risk Sharing in an Asymmetric Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1236, CIRPEE.
  4. Díaz, Julián P., 2012. "Can enforcement constraints explain the patterns of capital flows after financial liberalizations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1180-1194.
  5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Staff Report 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Rudolfs Bems & Philip Schellekens, 2008. "Macroeconomics of Migration in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 08/264, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
  8. Julia Lendvai & Werner Roeger, 2010. "External deficits in the Baltics 1995 to 2007: Catching up or imbalances," European Economy - Economic Papers 398, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Краснопёров, Олег, 2012. "Оценка Производственной Функции В Условиях Неопределённости Динамики Физического Капитала
    [Assessing the production
    ," MPRA Paper 47555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Jönsson, Kristian, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," Working Paper Series 187, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Kónya, István & Benczúr, Péter, 2013. "Kamatfelár, hitelválság és mérlegalkalmazkodás egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban
    [Interest premium, credit crisis and balance-sheet adjustment in a small open economy]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 940-964.
  12. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori
    [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]
    ," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Mansoorian, Arman & Mohsin, Mohammed, 2010. "On the employment, investment, and current account effects of trade liberalizations with durability in consumption," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 228-240, December.

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