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Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori
[Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]

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  • Krasnopjorovs, Olegs

Abstract

Nevienmērīga ekonomikas izaugsme pēdējo gadu laikā aktualizēja jautājumu par to vai Latvijā pastāv vismaz viens ekonomikas izaugsmes faktors, kas nav saistīts ar ekonomikas cikla svārstībām. Promocijas darba mērķis ir ar ekonometriskās modelēšanas metodēm noskaidrot Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošos faktorus, kā arī noteikt ar ekonometriskās modelēšanas metožu pielietojumu Latvijas gadījumā saistītās problēmas un to atrisināšanas iespējas. Promocijas darba gaitā tika identificēts galvenais Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmes noteicošais faktors – fiziskā kapitāla uzkrāšanas process. Lai gan katrs sabiedrisko investīciju lats vidēji vismaz tik pat veicina IKP izaugsmi kā privāto investīciju lats, lielāka loma Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmē bija tieši fiziskā kapitāla uzkrāšanai privātajā sektorā, kas saistāms ar lielāku privātā kapitāla apjomu un to straujāku pieaugumu. Fiziskā kapitāla uzkrāšanas veicinošā ietekme uz vidējo darba ražīguma līmeni valstī izpaudās gan tieši (palielinot kapitāla pret darbaspēku attiecību), gan arī netieši (ļaujot izmantot produktīvākās tehnoloģijas). Tieši fiziskā kapitāla uzkrāšana bija galvenais faktors, kas noteica Latvijas vidējā ienākumu līmeņa un vidējā darba ražīguma līmeņa konverģences procesu uz ES-15 (valstis, kas iestājās ES pirms 2004. gada) rādītāju. Promocijas darba ietvaros tika noteikta arī citu faktoru ietekme uz ekonomikas izaugsmi Latvijas un citu ES valstu gadījumā: tautsaimniecības nodrošinājums ar darbaspēku, cilvēkkapitālu un dabas resursiem; tautsaimniecības struktūras pārmaiņas; pasaules tehniskais progress un valsts atpalicība no pasaules ražošanas potenciāla; reģionālais aspekts. Promocijas darba gaitā tika parādīts, ka izmantotām metodēm, statistisko datu avotiem un pieņēmumiem ir izšķiroša ietekme uz pētījuma rezultātiem. Tādējādi ievērojama pētījuma daļa veltīta statistisku datu metodoloģiskām īpatnībām, kā arī pētījuma rezultātu stabilitātes pārbaudei attiecībā pret alternatīvām metodēm un pieņēmumiem.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47550.

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Date of creation: 22 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47550

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Keywords: ekonomikas izaugsme; ražošanas funkcija; konverģence; neparametriskās metodes; fiziskais kapitāls; investīcijas;

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