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Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?

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Author Info
Rudolfs Bems (Stockholm School of Economics)
Kristian Jönsson Hartelius (Sveriges Riksbank)

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Abstract

Since their opening up to international capital markets, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced large and persistent capital inflows and trade deficits. This paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2004 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. The model indicates that trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2005.05.006
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 179-209
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:9:y:2006:i:1:p:179-209

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Related research
Keywords: Baltic states; International factor movements; Non-traded goods; Adjustment costs; Dynamic general equilibrium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Staff Report 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jönsson, Kristian, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," Working Paper Series 187, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  3. Rudolfs Bems & Philip Schellekens, 2008. "Macroeconomics of Migration in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 08/264, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Balázs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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